Ecological Risks Arising in the Regional Water Resources in Inner Mongolia Due to a Large-Scale Afforestation Project

Abstract

In recent years, a large-scale afforestation campaign has been implemented in Inner Mongolia, China, to control desertification and soil erosion. However, the water consumption associated with large-scale afforestation significantly impacts the water resources in Inner Mongolia, resulting in a major ecological risk. This study aimed to evaluate the ecological risk of water resources caused by afforestation in the region. In this study, using land cover data, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data, and meteorological data, we performed trend analysis and used the water balance equation and water security index (WSI) to analyze the ecological risks of water resources caused by afforestation in Inner Mongolia from 2000 to 2020. The results show that (1) the afforestation area in Inner Mongolia was 5.37 × 104 km2 in 2000–2020; (2) afforestation in arid and semi-arid areas led to a reduction in water resources; (3) afforestation reduced water resources in the study area by 62 million cubic meters (MCM) per year; and (4) ~76% of afforestation regions faced ecological risks related to water resources. This study provides scientific suggestions for the sustainable development of regional water resources and afforestation.