Economic consequences of paratuberculosis control in dairy cattle: A stochastic modeling study

Abstract

The cost of paratuberculosis to dairy herds, through decreased milk production, early culling, and poor reproductive performance, has been well-studied. The benefit of control programs, however, has been debated. A recent stochastic compartmental model for paratuberculosis transmission in US dairy herds was modified to predict herd net present value (NPV) over 25 years in herds of 100 and 1000 dairy cattle with endemic paratuberculosis at initial prevalence of 10% and 20%. Control programs were designed by combining 5 tests (none, fecal culture, ELISA, PCR, or calf testing), 3 test-related culling strategies (all test-positive, high-positive, or repeated positive), 2 test frequencies (annual and biannual), 3 hygiene levels (standard, moderate, or improved), and 2 cessation decisions (testing ceased after 5 negative whole-herd tests or testing continued). Stochastic dominance was determined for each herd scenario; no control program was fully dominant for maximizing herd NPV in any scenario. Use of the ELISA test was generally preferred in all scenarios, but no paratuberculosis control was highly preferred for the small herd with 10% initial prevalence and was frequently preferred in other herd scenarios. Based on their effect on paratuberculosis alone, hygiene improvements were not found to be as cost-effective as test-and-cull strategies in most circumstances. Global sensitivity analysis found that economic parameters, such as the price of milk, had more influence on NPV than control program-related parameters. We conclude that paratuberculosis control can be cost effective, and multiple control programs can be applied for equivalent economic results.

Implications of Cattle Trade for the Spread and Control of Infectious Diseases in Slovenia

“…When assessing the impact of paratuberculosis, its potential for spreading and efficacy of different surveillance and control measures, the problems of the lack of empirical data and scarce resources can be overcome to a certain extent by the use of different mathematical and computational methods. In the case of paratuberculosis, these methods were used to study: the disease dynamics at the herd level (23)(24)(25), between-herd transmission and spread potential (11,26), evaluation of the surveillance systems and control measures (27)(28)(29), and assessment of economic consequences of the disease and control measures (30)(31)(32)(33)(34).…”

Modelling Bovine Granuloma Formation In Vitro upon Infection with Mycobacterium Avium Subspecies Paratuberculosis

“…Current control efforts rely on rapid serological tests to identify infected animals before they are euthanized [10][11][12][13]. Unfortunately, there is no cost-effective treatment for JD-affected cattle [14].…”

Mycobacterium avium paratuberculosis infection of calves – The impact of dam infection status

“…Despite some reported success of culling programmes Toft, 2011, Strain, 2018), progress is often very slow. Studies showing that test-and-cull strategies alone have a limited impact on the control of Johne's disese (Groenendaal et al, 2002) have recently been challenged by simulation studies that have suggested that these can be more effective (Smith et al 2017). Including future dam status may be useful to more rapidly remove the offspring of test-positive dams, regardless of the diagnostic timing.…”