Economic effects of projected decrease in Brazilian agricultural productivity under climate change

Nazareth, Marcos Spínola; Gurgel, Angelo; Cunha, Dênis Antônio da

doi:10.1007/s10708-020-10286-1

Cited by 5 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…The socio-economic modeling tools enhanced to be deployed in this study (Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis -EPPA model 22 , and the General Equilibrium Analysis Project -PAEG model 23,24 , see Methods) allow us to assess impacts both consumer prices and incomes, since they represent 10 different families group in Brazilian regions, considering changes in all markets and prices of goods and services.…”

Section: Socio-economic Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Double-cropped Corn Ethanol in Brazil: An existing food-energy system that contributes to multiple Sustainable Development Goals

Gurgel,

Seabra,

Arantes

et al. 2023

Preprint

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We evaluate the fast-expanding food-energy system of double-cropped corn ethanol in the Brazilian Center-West region using a novel combination of environmental and socio-economic models. Based on this comprehensive approach, we find that this system provides renewable and affordable energy (5 billion liters of ethanol, 600 MWh of electrical power) and feed (4 thousand tonnes of distillers dried grains), reduces greenhouse gas emissions (9.3 million to 13.2 million tons of CO2e), saves land (160 thousand hectares), boosts regional income growth and consumption (0.05% to 0.6% increase in household income), improves food security, and benefits ecosystems and human health. These impacts are amplified when carbon capture and storage is coupled into the process. Key features responsible for this outcome include the integration of feedstock supply into existing practices and the use of sustainable biomass to provide process energy. Future analysis should consider region-specific factors when incorporating these features into other bioenergy systems.

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Section: Socio-economic Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis -EPPA model 22 , and the General Equilibrium Analysis Project -PAEG model 23,24 were enhanced and deployed. Both are computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, and the EPPA model is a component of the Integrated Global System Modeling (IGSM) framework 54 .…”

Section: Socio-economic and Land Use Change Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Double-cropped Corn Ethanol in Brazil: An existing food-energy system that contributes to multiple Sustainable Development Goals

Gurgel,

Seabra,

Arantes

et al. 2023

Preprint

Self Cite

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“…At the continent level, besides studies involving the global economy, around 20% of the 97 articles focusing on a place (city, country or region) located in each of three continents: Africa, Asia and Europe. Only three articles focused on a place located in Oceania, and one article on Brazil in South America (Nazareth et al , 2020). The remaining six articles focused on North America.…”

Section: Review Findings and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Africa, Asia and Europe. Only three articles focused on a place located in Oceania, and one article on Brazil in South America (Nazareth et al, 2020). The remaining six articles focused on North America.…”

Section: Climate Change Adaptationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Only a few of the studies have explicitly mentioned the term "autonomous adaptation" in their abstracts (Hasegawa et al, 2014(Hasegawa et al, , 2016Mitter et al, 2015;Wei et al, 2017). In several other studies, similar terms to the effect of the embodied autonomous adaptation include (Gonseth et al, 2017;Labriet et al, 2015), indirect impact (Chalise et al, 2017;Koopman et al, 2015;Schönhart et al, 2013), market adaptation (Koopman et al, 2015), carbon leakage (Gonzalez-Eguino et al, 2012), economy-wide effect (Chalise and Naranpanawa, 2016;Kahsay et al, 2017;Nazareth et al, 2020;Steininger et al, 2016;Teotonio et al, 2020;Yalew et al, 2018), macroeconomic impact (Labriet et al, 2015;Roson and Damania, 2017;Teotonio et al, 2020) and effect of sectoral interlinkages (Khan et al, 2020;Steininger et al, 2016).…”

Section: How Adaptation Is Addressed In the Computable General Equili...mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate change adaptation based on computable general equilibrium models – a systematic review

Wei

Aaheim

2023

IJCCSM

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Purpose This study aims to identify the current state of the art and the gaps in the application of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models on studying climate change adaptation. Design/methodology/approach A systematic review is conducted to select, classify and analyze relevant studies from two databases of Web of Science and Scopus. Findings Totally, 170 articles based on selected keywords were found from both databases, where 56 articles were duplicates. The authors further excluded 17 articles owing to preliminary exclusion criteria. Hence, 97 papers were selected for full-text review and more detailed assessment. Only a few of the studies explicitly have addressed the role of autonomous adaptation embodied in the CGE models. Over one-third of the studies have focused on planned adaptation without explicitly mentioning autonomous adaptation. Agriculture was the most addressed sector, and country-level models are the most adopted. Only one article has focused on South America. Research limitations/implications The review suggests that autonomous adaptation embodied in CGE models was not well addressed in the literature. As the limited studies have shown that autonomous adaptation can dramatically mitigate direct climate change impacts, further studies are needed to examine the importance of the autonomous adaptation for better understanding of climate change impacts. Furthermore, CGE models can provide a joint assessment considering both mitigation and adaptation strategies and management measures as such models have also been widely used to address effects of mitigation measures in the literature. Originality/value The studies on climate change adaptation based on CGE models have been systematically reviewed, and state-of-the-art knowledge and research gaps have been identified.

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Agricultural vulnerability to climate change in the Rio das Contas Basin, Brazil

Santos

Cunha

Santos

et al. 2021

Int. J. Environ. Sci. Technol.

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Economic effects of projected decrease in Brazilian agricultural productivity under climate change

Cited by 5 publications

References 18 publications

Double-cropped Corn Ethanol in Brazil: An existing food-energy system that contributes to multiple Sustainable Development Goals

Double-cropped Corn Ethanol in Brazil: An existing food-energy system that contributes to multiple Sustainable Development Goals

Climate change adaptation based on computable general equilibrium models – a systematic review

Agricultural vulnerability to climate change in the Rio das Contas Basin, Brazil

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