Economic Recession and Fertility in the Developed World

Abstract

This article reviews research on the effects of economic recessions on fertility in the developed world. We study how economic downturns, as measured by various indicators, especially by declining GDP levels, falling consumer confidence, and rising unemployment, were found to affect fertility. We also discuss particular mechanisms through which the recession may have influenced fertility behavior, including the effects of economic uncertainty, falling income, changes in the housing market, and rising enrollment in higher education, and also factors that influence fertility indirectly such as declining marriage rates. Most studies find that fertility tends to be pro-cyclical and often rises and declines with the ups and downs of the business cycle. Usually, these aggregate effects are relatively small (typically, a few percentage points) and of short durations; in addition they often influence especially the timing of childbearing and in most cases do not leave an imprint on cohort fertility levels. Therefore, major long-term fertility shifts often continue seemingly uninterrupted during the recession—including the fertility declines before and during the Great Depression of the 1930s and before and during the oil shock crises of the 1970s. Changes in the opportunity costs of childbearing and fertility behavior during economic downturn vary by sex, age, social status, and number of children; childless young adults are usually most affected. Furthermore, various policies and institutions may modify or even reverse the relationship between recessions and fertility. The first evidence pertaining to the recent recession falls in line with these findings. In most countries, the recession has brought a decline in the number of births and fertility rates, often marking a sharp halt to the previous decade of rising fertility rates.

Economic Uncertainty and Fertility

“…This issue was initially raised in research on eastern Europe, where birth rates collapsed after the demise of the communist systems and the emergence of labor market uncertainty (Billingsley 2011;Sobotka et al 2011). Since the global financial crisis hit all of Europe starting in 2007, economic uncertainty has often been cited in explanations of birth dynamics in contemporary societies.…”

Economic Uncertainty and Family Dynamics in Europe

“…It may also be conceptualized as an aggregate phenomenon, reflecting general uncertainties felt by all people during, for example, an economic recession (Sobotka et al 2011). …”

Male fertility in Greece

“…Bronte-Tinkew et al (2009) examine social factors associated with higher-order fertility among males; Guzzo and Hayford (2010) provide sufficient evidence for men and women being subject to different selection forces of unmarried first-time parenthood, as well as to divergent subsequent fertility behavior; Lappegård and Rønsen (2013) examine socioeconomic differences in multi-partner male fertility in Norway. Lately, male fertility has been incorporated in studies exploring the way economic and employment uncertainties relate to fertility and family dynamics in the developed world (Kreyenfeld et al 2012;Sobotka et al 2011).…”