EDIM: Earthquake Disaster Information System for the Marmara Region, Turkey

Wenzel, Friedemann; Erdik, Mustafa; Köhler, Nina; Zschau, Jochen; Milkereit, Claus; Picozzi, Matteo; Fischer, Joachim; Redlich, Jens-Peter; Kühnlenz, Frank; Lichtblau, B.; Eveslage, Ingmar; Christ, I.; Lessing, R.; Kiehle, C.

doi:10.1007/978-3-642-12233-0_6

Cited by 5 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…There currently exist EEWsystems in various stages of development and production in earthquake-prone countries around the world (Allen et al, 2009) including Mexico (Espinosa-Aranda et al, 2011;Cuéllar et al, 2017;Suárez et al, 2018), Switzerland (Cua et al, 2009), Italy (Zollo et al, 2014;Picozzi et al, 2015), Romania (Böse et al, 2007), Turkey (Wenzel et al, 2014), Taiwan (Hsiao et al, 2009), Japan (Nakamura, 1988;Hoshiba and Ozaki, 2014;Liu and Yamada, 2014;Kodera et al, 2016), Israel (Nof and Allen, 2016), South Korea (Sheen et al, 2014), and Chile (Lancieri et al, 2011). Both the demand and the usefulness of these systems have been well established through numerous studies (Kamigaichi et al, 2009;Gasparini et al, 2011;Strauss and Allen, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimizing Earthquake Early Warning Performance: ElarmS‐3

Chung

Henson

Allen

2019

Seismological Research Letters

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The University of California Berkeley's (UCB) Earthquake Alert Systems (ElarmS) is a network-based earthquake early warning (EEW) algorithm that was one of the original algorithms developed for the U.S. west-coast-wide ShakeAlert EEW system. Here, we describe the latest update to the algorithm, ElarmS v.3.0 (ElarmS-3 or E3). A new teleseismic filter has been developed for E3 that analyzes the frequency content of incoming signals to better differentiate between teleseismic and local earthquakes. A series of trigger filters, including amplitude-based checks and a horizontal-to-vertical ratio check, have also been added to E3 to improve the quality of triggers that are used to create events. Because of its excellent performance, E3 is now the basis for EPIC, the only ShakeAlert point-source algorithm going forward. We can therefore also use the performance of E3 described here to assess the likely performance of ShakeAlert in the coming public rollout. We should expect false events with magnitudes between M 5 and 6 less than once per year. False events with M ≥ 6 will be even less frequent, with none having been observed in testing. We do not expect to miss any M ≥ 6 onshore earthquakes, though the system may miss some large offshore events and may miss one onshore earthquake between M 5 and 6 per year. Finally, in the metropolitan regions where the station density is on the order of 10 km, we expect users 20, 30, and 40 km from an earthquake epicenter to get 3, 6, and 9 s warning, respectively, before the S-wave shaking begins. Electronic Supplement: Screenshot of the Earthquake Alert Systems (ElarmS) review tool, and example histograms and tables of algorithm performance created by the review tool.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimizing Earthquake Early Warning Performance: ElarmS‐3

Chung

Henson

Allen

2019

Seismological Research Letters

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“…The most commonly adopted EEW system relies on the quick estimation of point source parameters (hypocenter location and magnitude) and forecasts the upcoming strong ground motion with ground motion models (GMM) (Allen, 2007; Allen & Kanamori, 2003; Nakamura, 1988). This method has been applied or is currently in development in Japan (Kamigaichi et al., 2009; Nakamura, 1988), the west coast of the United States (Allen & Kanamori, 2003; Given et al., 2014), Mexico (Espinosa Aranda et al., 1995, 2009), Taiwan (Hsiao et al., 2009; Wu & Kanamori, 2005), Turkey (Wenzel et al., 2014), and in many other seismic active regions (e.g., Böse et al., 2007; Zollo et al., 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Real‐Time Fault Tracking and Ground Motion Prediction for Large Earthquakes With HR‐GNSS and Deep Learning

Lin,

Melgar,

Sahakian

et al. 2023

JGR Solid Earth

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Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems aim to forecast the shaking intensity rapidly after an earthquake occurs and send warnings to affected areas before the onset of strong shaking. The system relies on rapid and accurate estimation of earthquake source parameters. However, it is known that source estimation for large ruptures in real‐time is challenging, and it often leads to magnitude underestimation. In a previous study, we showed that machine learning, HR‐GNSS, and realistic rupture synthetics can be used to reliably predict earthquake magnitude. This model, called Machine‐Learning Assessed Rapid Geodetic Earthquake model (M‐LARGE), can rapidly forecast large earthquake magnitudes with an accuracy of 99%. Here, we expand M‐LARGE to predict centroid location and fault size, enabling the construction of the fault rupture extent for forecasting shaking intensity using existing ground motion models. We test our model in the Chilean Subduction Zone with thousands of simulated and five real large earthquakes. The result achieves an average warning time of 40.5 s for shaking intensity MMI4+, surpassing the 34 s obtained by a similar GNSS EEW model. Our approach addresses a critical gap in existing EEW systems for large earthquakes by demonstrating real‐time fault tracking feasibility without saturation issues. This capability leads to timely and accurate ground motion forecasts and can support other methods, enhancing the overall effectiveness of EEW systems. Additionally, the ability to predict source parameters for real Chilean earthquakes implies that synthetic data, governed by our understanding of earthquake scaling, is consistent with the actual rupture processes.

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“…They are operational in Mexico (Cuéllar et al, 2018), Taiwan (Hsiao et al, 2009), and Japan (Hoshiba and Ozaki, 2014;Kodera et al, 2016), which are regions located in subduction tectonic environments with different potential of generating destructive interplate earthquakes, and California (Given et al, 2018). Test systems continue to run, in particular in Europe (Clinton et al, 2016), for example, in Switzerland (Massin et al, 2021), Italy (Zollo et al, 2014), Romania (Böse et al, 2007), and Turkey (Wenzel et al, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Preliminary Results of an Earthquake Early Warning System in Costa Rica

Porras

Massin²,

Arroyo-Solórzano

et al. 2021

Front. Earth Sci.

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We analyze the performance of a prototype earthquake early warning system deployed at the National Seismological Network of Costa Rica in collaboration with the Swiss Seismological Service by presenting the real-time performance during six earthquakes (Mw 5.1-6.4) that took place during 2018 and 2019. We observe that, despite only limited efforts to optimize the existing network of 158 stations, for EEW purposes, the network density allows fast determination of source parameters using both the Virtual Seismologist and the Finite Fault Rupture Detector algorithms. Shallow earthquakes on or near-shore are routinely identified within 11–20 s of their occurrence. The warning times for the capital city of San Jose are of 43 s for epicenters located at 220 km, like for the Mw 6.4 Armuelles earthquake. On the other hand, during the time analyzed, the EEW system did not provide positive warning times for earthquakes at distances less than 40 km from San Jose. Even though large (Mw > 7) distant historical earthquakes have not caused heavy damage in San Jose, there is potential for developing an EEW system for Costa Rica, especially for the purposes of rapid earthquake notifications, disaster response management, and seismic risk mitigation.

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EDIM: Earthquake Disaster Information System for the Marmara Region, Turkey

Cited by 5 publications

References 10 publications

Optimizing Earthquake Early Warning Performance: ElarmS‐3

Optimizing Earthquake Early Warning Performance: ElarmS‐3

Real‐Time Fault Tracking and Ground Motion Prediction for Large Earthquakes With HR‐GNSS and Deep Learning

Preliminary Results of an Earthquake Early Warning System in Costa Rica

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