Effect of Match Location, Team Ranking, Match Status and Tactical Dimensions on the Offensive Performance in Spanish ‘La Liga’ Soccer Matches

Abstract

The aim of this paper was to study the combined effects of tactical and contextual dimensions on achieving offensive performance in open play possessions from Spanish “La Liga” soccer matches. 1860 team possessions from 20 random matches were evaluated by means of multidimensional observation. Multilevel regression models were constructed to predict the probability to achieve offensive performance according to the tactical and contextual dimensions registered in each possession. Performing penetrative actions after recovering the ball (OR = 1.497; 95% CI: 1.022–2.192; P < 0.05), and progressing by fast attacks (OR = 3.588; 95% CI: 2.045–6.294; p < 0.001) or counterattacks (OR = 7.097; 95% CI: 3.530–14.269; P < 0.001) was more effective to create scoring opportunities than performing a non-penetrative action and progressing by combinative attack, respectively. Also, progressing by long possessions (OR = 5.057; 95% CI: 2.406–10.627; p < 0.001) was more effective than progressing by short possessions to create scoring opportunities. As for contextual dimensions, multivariate analyses showed how playing at home and against high-ranked opponents registered more likelihood of achieving offensive penetration, although no associations were found in the production of scoring opportunities. Tactical dimensions as initial penetration, type of attack and possession length played an important role on achieving offensive penetration and goal scoring opportunities in Spanish Soccer “La Liga”.

The Impact of Match Location and Players’ Physical and Technical Activities on Winning in the German Bundesliga

“…However, if the opponent is stronger, playing at home provides an extra 14% chance of winning ( Bilek and Ulas, 2019 ). Other respondents indicate that playing at home and playing against high-ranked opponents increases the effectiveness of the offense but does not affect the goal-scoring opportunities ( Gonzalez Rodenas et al, 2019 ). Other studies, however, do not confirm this “finding” ( Almeida et al, 2014 ) and show an increase in offensive rates.…”

“…Other studies, however, do not confirm this “finding” ( Almeida et al, 2014 ) and show an increase in offensive rates. It follows that even multivariate analyses may not capture the high level of complexity (e.g., Almeida et al, 2014 ; Gonzalez Rodenas et al, 2019 ) that soccer styles represent, where constant interaction between team members, opponents, and context constraints creates dynamic and interdependent situations that are different and unique in each match. A very interesting example of these complex relationships is the study showing the decision tree for games in which the quality of the team is inferior to the opponent.…”

“…In addition, researchers indicate a number of other determinants of players’ activity during a match, including quality of opposition ( Bilek and Ulas, 2019 ), team and opposition ability ( Redwood-Brown et al, 2019 ), team formation ( Aquino et al, 2020 ), match status ( Gonzalez Rodenas et al, 2019 ), players’ age and experience ( Lorenzo-Martínez et al, 2019 ), and climate conditions ( Coker et al, 2020 ). However, during a soccer match, players experience all these factors simultaneously, which is why modern studies focus on multifactorial analyses, using advanced statistical methods ( Moura et al, 2014 ).…”

“…Bilek and Ulas (2019) used the decision tree identifying scoring first as the most influential on match outcome in each decision tree, and the impact of match location on the match outcome varied according to the quality of the opponent. Multivariate analyses (adjusted logistic multilevel models) by Gonzalez Rodenas et al (2019) showed how playing at home and against high-ranked opponents involved a higher likelihood of achieving offensive penetration although no associations were found in terms of creation of scoring opportunities. There is a significant relationship between match location, quality of opposition, and other contextual variables affecting the physical and technical activities of soccer players.…”

The influence of randomness on goals in football decreases over time. An empirical analysis of randomness involved in goal scoring in the English Premier League

“…No final consensus seems to exist with regard to identifying the most effective offensive strategies. Several studies report higher effectiveness in producing goals and score-box possessions for direct attacks and counterattacks than for combinatorial and positional attacks (González-Rodenas et al, 2019;Lago-Ballesteros et al, 2012;Sarmento et al, 2018). However, it has also been argued that the choice of "an offensive playing style is not the determining factor for success, since top teams are usually able to play employing either style" (Pratas et al, 2018, p. 223).…”