Effect of the time scale on the uncertainty of geometric mean concentrations of fecal indicators in creek under baseflow conditions

Abstract

Geometric mean concentrations of fecal indicator bacteria E. coli and enterococci are commonly used to evaluate the microbial quality of irrigation, recreation, and other types of waters, as well in watershed-scale microbial water quality modeling. It is not known how the uncertainty of those geometric mean concentrations depends on the time period between sampling. We analyzed data collected under baseflow conditions from three years of weekly and several daily sampling campaigns at Conococheague Creek in Pennsylvania. Standard deviations of logarithms of geometric mean concentrations were computed over weeks, months, and seasons. The increase in standard deviations from weekly to seasonal time scale was on average about 0.1 and 0.2 for log(E. coli) and log(enterococci), respectively, and in most cases was statistically significant. This may need to be accounted for when evaluating the uncertainty of measurements for modeling purposes and in risk assessment of microbial water quality.