Effective Coastal Adaptation Needs Accurate Hazard Assessment : A Case Study In Port Resolution, Tanna Island Vanuatu

Abstract

Developing countries face risks from natural hazards that are being amplified by climate change. Selection of effective adaptation interventions to manage these risks requires a sufficiently accurate assessment of the coastal hazard at a given location. Yet challenges remain in terms of understanding local coastal risks given the coarseness of global wave models and the paucity of locally scaled data in most developing countries, including Small Island Developing States (SIDS) like Vanuatu. The aim of this paper was to examine the differences in hazard assessment and adaptation option selections arising from analyses using globally versus locally scaled data on coastal processes. As a case study, we focused on an eroding cliff face in Port Resolution on Tanna Island, Vanuatu, which is of concern to the local community and government authorities. The coastal process modelling revealed that the global wave data generated unrealistically high predictions of wave height within Port Resolution bay. Expensive engineering adaptations designed to provide coastal protection were therefore likely to fail in preventing ongoing cliff erosion. In this case, the best adaptation solution involves changing land use to revegetate and help stabilise the cliff top. Our case study highlights the importance of accurate hazard assessment, especially in data poor regions where extrapolation of global datasets and models in the absence of local data can result in poor adaptation decision making. Furthermore, the multidisciplinary approach applied here can be applied in other data-poor regions to strengthen analyses exploring the benefits of local adaptation interventions.