Effective heat action plans: research to interventions

Ebi, Kristie L.

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab5ab0

Cited by 14 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…Deaths from extreme heat can be dramatically reduced with adequate preparedness action. A number of adaptation and risk management priorities are becoming clear: it is crucial that local governments and their emergency management partners establish heat action plans to ensure well-coordinated response actions during an extreme heat event -tailored to high-risk groups (Ebi, 2019). Heat wave early-warning systems also need to be improved, which includes tailoring messages to inform and motivate vulnerable groups, as well as providing tiered warnings that take into account that vulnerable groups may have lower thresholds for risk (Hess and Ebi, 2016).…”

Section: Conclusion and Recommendationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rapid attribution analysis of the extraordinary heat wave on the Pacific coast of the US and Canada in June 2021

et al. 2022

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Abstract. Towards the end of June 2021, temperature records were broken by several degrees Celsius in several cities in the Pacific Northwest areas of the US and Canada, leading to spikes in sudden deaths and sharp increases in emergency calls and hospital visits for heat-related illnesses. Here we present a multi-model, multi-method attribution analysis to investigate the extent to which human-induced climate change has influenced the probability and intensity of extreme heat waves in this region. Based on observations, modelling and a classical statistical approach, the occurrence of a heat wave defined as the maximum daily temperature (TXx) observed in the area 45–52∘ N, 119–123∘ W, was found to be virtually impossible without human-caused climate change. The observed temperatures were so extreme that they lay far outside the range of historical temperature observations. This makes it hard to state with confidence how rare the event was. Using a statistical analysis that assumes that the heat wave is part of the same distribution as previous heat waves in this region led to a first-order estimation of the event frequency of the order of once in 1000 years under current climate conditions. Using this assumption and combining the results from the analysis of climate models and weather observations, we found that such a heat wave event would be at least 150 times less common without human-induced climate change. Also, this heat wave was about 2 ∘C hotter than a 1-in-1000-year heat wave would have been in 1850–1900, when global mean temperatures were 1.2 ∘C cooler than today. Looking into the future, in a world with 2 ∘C of global warming (0.8 ∘C warmer than today), a 1000-year event would be another degree hotter. Our results provide a strong warning: our rapidly warming climate is bringing us into uncharted territory with significant consequences for health, well-being and livelihoods. Adaptation and mitigation are urgently needed to prepare societies for a very different future.

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Section: Conclusion and Recommendationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rapid attribution analysis of the extraordinary heat wave on the Pacific coast of the US and Canada in June 2021

et al. 2022

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Deaths from extreme heat can be dramatically reduced with adequate preparedness action -a number of adaptation and risk management priorities emerge. It is crucial that local governments and their emergency management partners establish heat action plans to ensure well coordinated response actions during an extreme heat event -tailored to high-risk groups (Ebi, 2019). Heatwave early warning systems also need to be improved, which includes tailoring messages to inform and motivate vulnerable groups, as well as providing tiered warnings that take into account vulnerable groups may have lower thresholds for risk (Hess and Ebi, 2016).…”

Section: Conclusion and Recommendationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rapid attribution analysis of the extraordinary heatwave on the Pacific Coast of the US and Canada June 2021

Philip

Kew

Oldenborgh

et al. 2021

Preprint

105

121

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Abstract. Towards the end of June 2021, temperature records were broken by several degrees Celsius in several cities in the Pacific northwest areas of the U.S. and Canada, leading to spikes in sudden deaths, and sharp increases in hospital visits for heat-related illnesses and emergency calls. Here we present a multi-model, multi-method attribution analysis to investigate to what extent human-induced climate change has influenced the probability and intensity of extreme heatwaves in this region. Based on observations and modeling, the occurrence of a heatwave with maximum daily temperatures (TXx) as observed in the area 45° N–52° N, 119° W–123° W, was found to be virtually impossible without human-caused climate change. The observed temperatures were so extreme that they lie far outside the range of historically observed temperatures. This makes it hard to quantify with confidence how rare the event was. In the most realistic statistical analysis, which uses the assumption that the heatwave was a very low probability event that was not caused by new nonlinearities, the event is estimated to be about a 1 in 1000 year event in today’s climate. With this assumption and combining the results from the analysis of climate models and weather observations, an event, defined as daily maximum temperatures (TXx) in the heatwave region, as rare as 1 in a 1000 years would have been at least 150 times rarer without human-induced climate change. Also, this heatwave was about 2 °C hotter than a 1 in 1000-year heatwave that at the beginning of the industrial revolution would have been (when global mean temperatures were 1.2 °C cooler than today). Looking into the future, in a world with 2 °C of global warming (0.8 °C warmer than today), a 1000-year event would be another degree hotter. It would occur roughly every 5 to 10 years in such global warming conditions. Our results provide a strong warning: our rapidly warming climate is bringing us into uncharted territory with significant consequences for health, well-being, and livelihoods. Adaptation and mitigation are urgently needed to prepare societies for a very different future.

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“…As noted by Professor Kris Ebi of the University of Washington, "one-size-fits-all approaches are less effective than solutions designed (preferably codesigned) and implemented with local stakeholders." 34 Indeed, intervention effectiveness is a pressing knowledge gap that would benefit from additional research at the intersection of epidemiology and implementation sciences and in partnership with local stakeholders. For example, Benmarhnia et al 11,35 evaluated the health benefits associated with implementation of a new heat action plan in Montreal and revision of a heat action plan in New York City.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Role of Cooling Centers in Protecting Vulnerable Individuals from Extreme Heat

et al. 2022

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The sponsors had no role in the design and conduct of the study: collection, management, analysis, and interpretation of the data; preparation, review, or approval of the article; and decision to submit the article for publication. All the data used in this commentary are derived from sources in the public domain, as referenced. G.A.W. currently serves as a consultant for Google, LLC (Mountain View, CA) and the Health Effects Institute (Boston, MA).

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Effective heat action plans: research to interventions

Cited by 14 publications

References 20 publications

Rapid attribution analysis of the extraordinary heat wave on the Pacific coast of the US and Canada in June 2021

Rapid attribution analysis of the extraordinary heat wave on the Pacific coast of the US and Canada in June 2021

Rapid attribution analysis of the extraordinary heatwave on the Pacific Coast of the US and Canada June 2021

The Role of Cooling Centers in Protecting Vulnerable Individuals from Extreme Heat

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