Effects of Climate Variability on Maize Yield in Wukari Local Government Area of Taraba State, Nigeria

Abstract

This study evaluated the impact of climate variability on maize yield in Wukari Local Government Area, Taraba State, from 1999 to 2018. Utilising an ex-post facto and analytical design, the quantitative research relied on secondary data from the Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NIMET) and Agriculture Development Program (ADP), Jalingo. Data analysis involved descriptive (time series trend analysis) and inferential statistics (Ordinary Least Square regression and correlation analysis). Findings indicated an increasing trend in average annual maximum temperature (62% variability) and a decreasing trend in average annual minimum temperature (44% variability). Additionally, there was an almost uniform but increasing trend in average annual rainfall (37% variability). Maize yield showed an increasing trend with a 50% variability. Correlation analysis revealed a non-significant strong positive relationship (r = 0.088, sig. 0.712 > 0.05) between average rainfall and temperature and a non-significant weak negative relationship (r = -0.072, sig. 0.762 > 0.05) between rainfall variability and maize yield. However, a significant moderate positive relationship (r = 0.564, sig. 0.010 < 0.05) was found between average temperature and maize yield. Linear regression analysis showed that 33% (r-squared: r² = 0.333) of the variation in maize yield was explained by changes in rainfall and temperature over the study period. The study concluded that rainfall and temperature significantly affect maize yield by 33%. Recommendations included adopting climate change mitigation and adaptation measures, such as using resistant and drought-tolerant species, and educating farmers on climate change impacts and adaptive strategies, including improved agricultural techniques and alternative water sources like irrigation and mulching, to ensure sustainable food security.