Electrification pathways for light-duty logistics vehicles based on perceived cost of ownership in Northern China

Abstract

Urban decarbonization and environmental mitigation necessitate the electrification of light-duty logistics vehicles (LDLVs), including battery electric, plug-in hybrid, and hydrogen fuel cell variants. Although the market uptake of electric LDLVs is ecologically imperative, it is impeded by range anxiety and charging infrastructure limitations, particularly pronounced in Northern China’s cold climates. This paper employs a system dynamics model to assess the Perceived Cost of Ownership of electric LDLVs, integrating both direct expenses - initial investment and energy costs - and indirect factors like energy replenishment, vehicle substitution, and lifecycle carbon emissions. This analysis reveals that, notwithstanding higher upfront costs, electric LDLVs offer substantial economic and environmental advantages, with significant energy and maintenance savings projected by 2030 under various electrification scenarios. This paper predicts that policy incentives, electricity pricing, and technological progress will significantly influence the market dynamics and industry output of new energy vehicles in Northern China. Notably, the findings indicate that by 2030, electric LDLVs could achieve substantial cost savings and environmental benefits, with market penetration and industry output contingent on the interplay of policy support and technological advancements. The baseline scenario forecasts a 48.17% market share and CNY 60.015 billion in industry output, whereas the high-speed electrification scenario projects the most optimistic outcomes, with a 75.29% market share and CNY 306.087 billion in output.