Energy Outlooks Compared: Global and Regional Insights

Abstract

We compare prominent global energy scenarios of organisations and companies. We supplement the analysis with four own scenarios, which were derived from structured analytic techniques in combination with a numerical global energy and resource market model (Multimod).Our study provides three central contributions: (i) a compact survey of selected outlooks with meta characteristics (conceptual nature, numerical framework, qualitative elaboration) and quantitative energy system indicators at the global and regional (Europe, Asia-Pacific region, North America) level; (ii) numerous observations from a verbal analysis intended to stimulate future research; and (iii) the discussion of our own outlook.Among other conclusions, we find that scenarios essentially carrying forward current policies and/or trends lead to future worlds that do not meet the 2°C target of the Paris Agreement. Interestingly, there are both normative and exploratory scenarios reaching the Paris Agreement, and there is no consensus between outlooks on how to attain low-emission futures towards 2050. Some scenarios rely on a very strong role of renewables, others on a substantial role of negative emission technologies with fossil fuel use, yet others on assuming decreasing energy demand. There is a strong variation between outlooks with respect to transparency on scenario generation, modelling approach, and data. We argue that, in addition to transparency, the actual inclusion of a qualitative analysis of drivers and storylines helps ensure the political, social and technological feasibility of scenarios.

Investigating the Cost-Effectiveness of Solar Electricity Compared to Grid Electricity in the Capitals of Middle Eastern Countries: A Residential Scale Case Study

“…One of the problems of electricity production in Yemen is dependence on fossil fuels [58]. Nearly 85% of people around Sana'a use solar panels to supply their energy [59]. Yemen has a very good radiation situation, the efficiency of which helps to supply the country's energy deficit [60,61].…”

Global Energy Scenarios: A Geopolitical Reality Check

“…A burgeoning literature has started to compare and critically assess such energy and climate future exercises (Ansari et al, 2019;Hausfather and Peters, 2018;Lacroix et al, 2021;Peng et al, 2021;Pielke and Ritchie, 2021;Rosen, 2021;Skea et al, 2021). Modellers are criticised for failing to acknowledge the impact of the learning curves of clean energy technologies and their rapidly falling costs (Bond, 2021;Ives et al, 2021).…”

Potential Techno-Economic Feasibility of Hybrid Energy Systems for Electrifying Various Consumers in Yemen

“…Unfortunately, none of the stated projects has materialized due to the 2015-fired conflict. Additionally, Yemen and Ethiopia still negotiate to buy electricity from hydropower south of the country [49,62,63].…”

“…Therefore, stakeholders and households have been unable to find other options. Whatever solar PV energy systems are recently used in Yemeni urban and rural, it is still unreliable and inefficient in terms of inappropriate design and configuration due to the lack of renewable energy experts and renewable energy institutes to play a key role in raising the level of trainees and conducting studies on related systems [62,63].…”

“…(3) The studies of the optimal design and techno-economic assessment of standalone HRES are very important-particularly in Yemen-while these kinds of studies do not obtain enough research, owing to the reasons of economy and war. As reported in [62,63], most of renewable energy systems are unreliable and inefficient in terms of inappropriate design and sizing. This is due to the lack of consideration of various factors of renewable energy or energy storage, the lack of renewable energy institutes to play a key role of raising the level of trainees, and the lack of conducting studies on related systems.…”