Energy systems modeling for maximizing renewable energy share in fossil fuel dominated Mediterranean climate

Abstract

Increasing energy production and consumption and the need to save and increase its efficiency will lead us to manage the energy system on both supply and demand sides with higher accuracy. This study presents a new model scheme for Mediterranean climate areas' energy systems due to the importance of energy modeling to meet energy systems' needs. This model aims to provide an interactive energy system for two short and medium‐term time horizons (2025 and 2030, respectively) by targeting three main objectives: total primary energy supply, greenhouse gas emissions, and system cost. North Khorasan province in northeastern Iran has been selected for the case study as an example of mountainous and Mediterranean climates. EnergyPLAN has been used as a modeling tool. Accordingly, after examining the study area's current state, its future needs are forecasted using the support vector machine algorithm. The study area's optimal energy system is modeled within the desired time horizons by applying and comparing four different scenarios, including business as usual (BAU), power plant optimization, and demand response with wind or solar power plants. The results show that the part of the energy demand provided by wind scenario's situation is favorable and can meet the study area's future demands. This scenario will reduce CO2 emissions in 2025 and 2030 by 93.87 and 227.78 kilotonnes per year, respectively, compared to the BAU scenario. It is also estimated that this scenario's implementation will save the total annual cost of 8.27 and 156.06 million euros compared to the BAU scenario in 2025 and 2030.