Enhanced Ultra-Short-Term PV Forecasting Using Sky Imagers: Integrating MCR and Cloud Cover Estimation

Abstract

Accurate photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting is crucial for stable grid integration, particularly under rapidly changing weather conditions. This study presents an ultra-short-term forecasting model that integrates sky imager data and meteorological radar data, achieving significant improvements in forecasting accuracy. By dynamically tracking cloud movement and estimating cloud coverage, the model enhances performance under both clear and cloudy conditions. Over an 8-day evaluation period, the average forecasting accuracy improved from 67.26% to 77.47% (+15%), with MSE reduced by 39.2% (from 481.5 to 292.6), R2 increased from 0.724 to 0.855, NSE improved from 0.725 to 0.851, and Theil’s U reduced from 0.42 to 0.32. Notable improvements were observed during abrupt weather transitions, particularly on 1 July and 3 July, where the combination of MCR and sky imager data demonstrated superior adaptability. This integrated approach provides a robust foundation for advancing ultra-short-term PV power forecasting.