ENSO influence on the North Atlantic European climate: a non-linear and non-stationary approach

López‐Parages, Jorge; Rodríguez‐Fonseca, Belén; Dommenget, Dietmar; Frauen, Claudia

doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2951-0

Cited by 42 publications

(54 citation statements)

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“…In the same sense, the aforementioned nonstationary teleconnections identified in previous studies suggest that the current predictability of ENSO impact over Europe through both the troposphere and the stratosphere could be variable and, at least for specific time periods, much greater than expected. Related to this, a recent sensitivity analysis carried out with an atmospheric general circulation model has demonstrated that the ENSO signature on Europe is sensitive to the ocean background conditions under which the ENSO phenomenon occurs (López-Parages et al 2016). As the model used in this study does not include a well-resolved stratosphere, it can be inferred that the modulator has to be associated with changes in the troposphere.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 93%

“…As in López-Parages et al (2015), in order to focus the analysis on the nonstationary ENSO-NAE teleconnection at interannual time scales, a 7-yr high-pass filter based on a discrete Fourier transform is applied to all the fields. Some regression patterns shown throughout this study are constrained to the statistically significant response.…”

Section: ) Data Filtering and Statistical Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this context, although many papers indicate that ENSO's impact at surface levels over the NAE sector seems to be weak (e.g., García-Serrano et al 2011), López-Parages andRodríguez-Fonseca (2012) have found a strong and significant impact of ENSO on European and Mediterranean (Euro-Mediterranean) rainfall in late winter but just for those decades throughout the twentieth century in coincidence with negative phases of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). This AMO-like evolution of the teleconnection is coherent with others observational studies (Mariotti et al 2002;Knippertz et al 2003).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As a consequence, long-term simulations from coupled global circulation models (CGCMs) emerge as a very convenient tool for testing responses associated with internal variability of the ocean-atmosphere coupled system. In this way, López-Parages et al (2015) analyze, in a preindustrial control simulation of the CNRM-CM5 coupled model, the ENSO-Euro-Mediterranean rainfall link in late winter-early spring (averaged for the February-April season). Periods with positive and negative significant correlations between the Niño-3.4 index and the rainfall variability in central Europe are found, in accordance with the observed changing link detected throughout the twentieth century (Fig.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Hereinafter these periods with opposite relations between ENSO and the European rainfall will be referred to as P (positive correlations) and N (negative correlations), respectively. Taking into account that the CNRM-CM5 model used in López-Parages et al (2015) does not include a well-resolved stratosphere, the authors propose that the main modulating driver in the ENSO-NAE teleconnection are the changes in the mean flow at the upper troposphere, which they associate with internal alterations in the ocean-atmosphere coupled system over the midlatitudes of the North Pacific Ocean (between 308 and 608N, approximately). As noted above, ENSO influence in the NAE sector is mainly related to Rossby wave trains propagation in late winter.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Multidecadal Modulation of ENSO Teleconnection with Europe in Late Winter: Analysis of CMIP5 Models

et al. 2016

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Many studies point to a robust ENSO signature on the North Atlantic-European (NAE) sector associated with a downstream effect of Rossby wave trains. Some of these works also address a nonstationary behavior of the aforementioned link, but only few have explored the possible modulating factors. In this study the internal causes within the ocean-atmosphere coupled system influencing the tropospheric ENSO-Euro-Mediterranean rainfall teleconnection have been analyzed. To this aim, unforced long-term preindustrial control simulations from 18 different CMIP5 models have been used. A nonstationary impact of ENSO on Euro-Mediterranean rainfall, being spatially consistent with the observational one, is found. This variable feature is explained by a changing ENSO-related Rossby wave propagation from the tropical Pacific to the NAE sector, which, in turn, is modulated by multidecadal variability of the climatological jet streams associated with the underlying sea surface temperature (SST). The results, therefore, indicate a modulation of the ENSO-Euro-Mediterranean rainfall teleconnection by the internal (and multidecadal) variability of the ocean-atmosphere coupled system.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 93%

Section: ) Data Filtering and Statistical Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Multidecadal Modulation of ENSO Teleconnection with Europe in Late Winter: Analysis of CMIP5 Models

et al. 2016

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Which ENSO teleconnections are robust to internal atmospheric variability?

Brands

2017

Geophysical Research Letters

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Assuming that atmosphere general circulation models (AGCMs) provide realistic estimates of the atmosphere's response to external forcing, it is here tested whether teleconnections triggered by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are robust to internal atmospheric variability. To this aim, the AGCM ensemble from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts ERA‐20CM project is used, whose 10 members are here seen as surrogates for the atmosphere's response to the observed external forcing. Results for 1900–2010 indicate that ENSO teleconnections in the tropics and in areas affected by the Pacific‐North American and Pacific‐South American patterns are robust, whereas in the extratropics they are otherwise generally not. Then, shorter periods are assessed during which particularly strong or weak teleconnections were found in previous studies based on observations. Results reveal that the late twentieth century teleconnections to North America, coinciding with the positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, are robust in the southern United States and Mexico and to the south of Aleutian Islands. In contrast, according to the model experiments and methods applied here, teleconnections to the climate in southern Europe are not robust at all.

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Correlations Between Extreme Atmospheric Hazards and Global Teleconnections: Implications for Multihazard Resilience

Steptoe

Jones

Fox

2018

Reviews of Geophysics

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Occurrences of concurrent extreme atmospheric hazards represent a significant area of uncertainty for organizations involved in disaster mitigation and risk management. Understanding risks posed by natural disasters and their relationship with global climate drivers is crucial in preparing for extreme events. In this review we quantify the strength of the physical mechanisms linking hazards and atmosphere‐ocean processes. We demonstrate how research from the science community may be used to support disaster risk reduction and global sustainable development efforts. We examine peer‐reviewed literature connecting 16 regions affected by extreme atmospheric hazards and eight key global drivers of weather and climate. We summarize current understanding of multihazard disaster risk in each of these regions and identify aspects of the global climate system that require further investigation to strengthen our resilience in these areas. We show that some drivers can increase the risk of concurrent hazards across different regions. Organizations that support disaster risk reduction, or underwrite exposure, in multiple regions may have a heightened risk of facing multihazard losses. We find that 15 regional hazards share connections via the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, with the Indian Ocean Dipole, North Atlantic Oscillation, and the Southern Annular Mode being secondary sources of significant regional interconnectivity. From a hazard perspective, rainfall over China shares the most connections with global drivers and has links to both Northern and Southern Hemisphere modes of variability. We use these connections to assess the global likelihood of concurrent hazard occurrence in support of multihazard resilience and disaster risk reduction goals.

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ENSO influence on the North Atlantic European climate: a non-linear and non-stationary approach

Cited by 42 publications

References 68 publications

Multidecadal Modulation of ENSO Teleconnection with Europe in Late Winter: Analysis of CMIP5 Models

Multidecadal Modulation of ENSO Teleconnection with Europe in Late Winter: Analysis of CMIP5 Models

Which ENSO teleconnections are robust to internal atmospheric variability?

Correlations Between Extreme Atmospheric Hazards and Global Teleconnections: Implications for Multihazard Resilience

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