Equitable mitigation to achieve the 1.5 °C goal in the Mediterranean basin

Abstract

The mitigation required to achieve the 1.5 °C goal of the Paris Agreement entails drastic emission reductions. The mentioned goal is of special interest for regions like the Mediterranean where the average temperature is rising above the world average with the consequential risk for the future viability of its different ecosystems. The objective of this work is to analyze if the commitments of the Mediterranean basin countries submitted under the Paris Agreement framework are in line with the 1.5 °C goal. For this analysis, the cumulative emissions of the current Nationally Determined Contributions of these countries until 2030, are compared with the result obtained from distributing the cumulative greenhouse gas emissions compatible with the 1.5 °C global mitigation scenario between 2018 and 2100. This distribution is obtained using the Model of Climate Justice that allocates the global emissions by using equity criteria (equality and responsibility) that take into consideration the historical responsibility for each country, in the period from 1994 to 2017. There are two main conclusions from the analysis of the NDCs. Firstly, it is concluded that the Mediterranean basin countries as a whole, are not in line with the 1.5 °C goal, because by 2030, 77% of the emissions budget that will be available until 2100, based on the equity criteria aforementioned, will already have been emitted. And, secondly, when the NDCs for each one of the countries are compared some significant differences in the degree of ambition can be seen.