Escalating tropical cyclone precipitation extremes and landslide hazards in South China under global warming

Abstract

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are expected to produce more intense precipitation under global warming. However, substantial uncertainties exist in the projection of coarse-resolution global climate models. Here, we use deep learning to aid targeted cloud-resolving simulations of extreme TCs. Contrary to the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) scaling, which indicates a 7% moisture increase per K warming, our simulations reveal more complex responses of TC rainfall. TCs will not intensify via strengthened updrafts but through the expansion of deep convective cores with suppression of shallow cumulus and congestus. Consequently, while localized hourly rainfall may adhere to the CC scaling, precipitation accumulation over city-sized areas could surge by 18%K-1. This super-CC intensification due to changing TC structure has profound implications for floods and landslides. Estimations using Hong Kong’s slope data confirm this concern and suggest an up to 215% increase in landslide risks with 4-K warming, highlighting amplified threats from compound disasters under climate change.