Establishment of a prognostic nomogram for elderly patients with limited-stage small cell lung cancer receiving radiotherapy

Abstract

The present study explored the risk factors associated with radiotherapy in seniors diagnosed with limited-stage small cell lung cancer (LS-SCLC) to construct and validate a prognostic nomogram. The study retrospectively included 137 elderly patients with LS-SCLC who previously received radiotherapy. Univariate and multivariate COX analyses were conducted to identify independent risk factors and determine optimal cut-off values. Kaplan–Meier survival curves and nomograms were constructed to predict survival. Calibration and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to evaluate the accuracy and consistency of the nomogram. Illness rating scale-geriatric (CIRS-G) score, treatment strategy, lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR), white blood cell-to-monocyte ratio (WMR), and prognostic nutritional index (PNI) were discovered to be independent prognostic factors. Based on the findings of our multivariate analysis, a risk nomogram was developed to assess patient prognosis. Internal bootstrap resampling was utilized to validate the model, and while the accuracy of the AUC curve at 1 year was modest at 0.657 (95% CI 0.458–0.856), good results were achieved in predicting 3- and 5 year survival with AUCs of 0.757 (95% CI 0.670–0.843) and 0.768 (95% CI 0.643–0.893), respectively. Calibration curves for 1-, 3-, and 5 year overall survival probabilities demonstrated good cocsistency between expected and actual outcomes. Patients with concurrent chemoradiotherapy, CIRS-G score > 5 points and low PNI, WMR and LMR correlated with poor prognosis. The nomogram model developed based on these factors demonstrated good predictive performance and provides a simple, accessible, and practical tool for clinicians to guide clinical decision-making and study design.