Estimated net value and uncertainty for automating ECCS switchover at PWRs

Abstract

NRC ABSTRACTA central question for resolution of GSI-24 is whether or not PWRs that currently rely on a manual system for ECCS switchover to recirculation should be required to install an automatic system. Risk estimates are obtained by reevaluating the contributions to core damage frequencies (CDFs) associated with failures of manual and semiautomatic switchover at a representative PWR. This study considers each separate instruction of the corresponding emergency operating procedures (EOPs), the mechanism for each control, and the relationship of each control to its neighbors. Important contributions to CDF include human errors that result in completely coupled failure of both trains and failure to enter the required EOP.This detailed study finds that changeover to a semiautomatic system is not justified on the basis of cost-benefit analysis: going from a manual to a semiautomatic system reduces the CDF by 1.7~10-~ per reactor-year, but the probability that the net cost associated with the modification being less than $1,000 per person-rem is about 20% without license renewal. Scoping analyses, using optimistic assumptions, were performed for a changeover to a semiautomatic system with automatic actuation and to a fully automatic system; in these cases the probability of having a net cost being less than $l,OOO/person-rem is about 50% without license renewal and over 95% with license renewal.