Estimating CO2 emissions from emergency-supply transport: The case of COVID-19 vaccine global air transport

Abstract

The environmental cost of disaster-related emergency supplies is significant. However, little research has been conducted on the estimation of emergency-supply transportation-related carbon emissions. This study created an “emergency supply emission estimation methodology” (ESEEM). The CO 2 emissions from the global air dispatch of COVID-19 vaccines were estimated using two hypothetical scenarios of one dose per capita and additional doses secured. The robustness of the model was tested with the Monte Carlo Simulation method (MCM) based one-sample t -test. The model was validated using the “Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM)” and GUM's MCM approaches. The results showed that to dispatch at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine to 7.8 billion people, nearly 8000 Boeing 747 flights will be needed, releasing approximately 8.1 ± 0.30 metric kilotons (kt) of CO 2 . As countries secure additional doses, these figures will increase to 14,912 flights and about 15 ± 0.48 kt of CO 2 . According to the variance-based sensitivity analysis, the total number of doses (population), technology, and wealth play a significant role in determining CO 2 emissions across nations. Thus, wealthy nations' long-term population reduction efforts, technological advancements, and mitigation efforts can benefit the environment as a whole and the CO 2 burdens associated with current COVID-19 and any future disasters' emergency-supply transportation.

CO2 pollution reduction: a tradeoff for fully fuzzy parameters in a megaproject optimization

“…(2022), the reduction of CO 2 emissions in ethylene plants was examined, with the combustion of Oxy-fuel having the highest influence on CO 2 emissions. Sajid et al . (2022) conducted a research for estimating CO 2 emissions regarding COVID-19 vaccine in air transport worldwide.…”

“…investigated CO 2 reduction in Chinese road transportation, finding out that demand has the largest influence on CO 2 emission concerning transportation. Also in s study done byMynko et al (2022), the reduction of CO 2 emissions in ethylene plants was examined, with the combustion of Oxy-fuel having the highest influence on CO 2 emissions Sajid et al (2022). conducted a research for estimating CO 2 emissions regarding COVID-19 vaccine in air transport worldwide.…”

Greenhouse gas emissions trends and drivers insights from the domestic aviation in Thailand

“…In addition, numerous studies have looked at global and national estimates of the aviation industry's GHG emissions. Some have focused on GHG emissions estimation in the domestic and international aviation sectors [ 11 , [22] , [23] , [24] ], as well as GHG emissions during the COVID-19 period [ [25] , [26] , [27] ]. Tarr et al [ 25 ] calculated the amount of carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions produced by international aviation in relation to New Zealand in 2017.…”

“…He and Xu calculated the CO 2 emissions produced by airplanes in the Chinese civil aviation sector between 1960 and 2009 [ 29 ]. Sajid et al [ 26 ] studied to estimate carbon emissions associated with emergency-supply transportation. The study primarily aimed to quantify the CO 2 emissions resulting from the worldwide air transportation of COVID-19 vaccines [ 26 ].…”

Environmental and enviroeconomic impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on commercial flights

“…They also calculated that 4.7 million metric tons of CO 2 from aviation were avoided in 2020 compared to the pre-pandemic period. Sajid et al (2022) investigated the EI of delivering at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine to 7.8 billion people. They concluded that approximately 8,000 Boeing 747 flights would be required for this, and approximately 8.1 ± 0.30 metric kilotons (kt) of CO 2 would be released into the atmosphere.…”