Estimating Partnership Duration among MSM in Belgium – a Modelling Study

Abstract

Mathematical modelling is widely used for describing infection transmission and evaluating interventions. The lack of reliable social parameters in the literature has been mentioned by many modelling studies, leading to limitations in the validity and interpretation of the results. Using data from the European MSM Internet survey 2017, we developed a network model to describe sex acts among MSM in Belgium. The model simulates daily sex acts among steady, persistent casual and one-off partners in a population of 10,000 MSM, grouped as low- or high-activity by using three different definitions. Model calibration was used to estimate partnership duration and homophily rates to match the distribution of cumulative sex partners over 12 months. We estimated an average duration between 1065 and 1409 days for steady partnerships, 4-6 and 251-299 days for assortative high- and low-activity individuals and 8-13 days for disassortative persistent casual partnerships, respectively, varying across the three definitions. High quality data on social network and behavioral parameters are scarce in literature. Our study addresses this lack of information by providing a method to estimate crucial parameters for network specification.