Estimating required general practitioner capacity due to generational change in Czech regions up to 2035

Abstract

The Czech healthcare system primary care segment, comprising general practitioners and pediatricians, faces persistent challenges due to the unbalanced and aging workforce of physicians. Ensuring adequate generational turnover in this sector is threatened at the national level and will exert an even more significant impact regionally. The changing age structure of the population will also play a crucial role in shaping the future demand for healthcare services. Using data obtained from the largest Czech health insurance company, this article highlights current regional disparities regarding the number, structure and capacity of general practitioners and pediatricians. It estimates the potential decline in the availability of physicians due primarily to advancing age – it has been estimated that almost 40% of general practitioner and 55% of pediatrician capacity will be withdrawn by 2035. Using regional population projections, the study determines the capacity required in each region to maintain the appropriate doctor/patient ratios. The results of the projections serve to raise awareness of the impact of changing age structures on the future supply of, and demand for, healthcare. Although the study does not determine a precise estimate of unfilled capacity, it prompts further discussions on ensuring accessible healthcare in the future.