Estimating the Number of Young Black Men who have Sex with Men (YBMSM) on the South Side of Chicago: Towards HIV Elimination within US Urban Communities

Abstract

The rate of HIV infection among young Black men who have sex with men (YBMSM) aged 16-29 is increasing significantly in the United States. Prevention in this population would considerably impact future health-care resources given the need for lifelong antiretrovirals. A YBMSM population estimate is needed to assist HIV prevention program planning. This analysis estimates the number of YBMSM aged 16-29 living on the south side of Chicago (SSC), the Chicago HIV epicenter, as the first step in eliminating HIV in this population. Three methods were utilized to estimate the number of YBMSM in the SSC. First, an indirect approach following the formula a=k/b; where a = the estimated number of YBMSM, k = the average YBMSM HIV prevalence estimate, and b=the YBMSM population-based HIV seropositivity rate. Second, data from the most recent National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) was used to estimate the proportion of Black men who report having sex with a man. Third, a modified Delphi approach was used, which averaged community expert estimates. The indirect approach yielded an average estimate of 11.7 % YBMSM, the NSFG yielded a 4.2 % (95 % CI 2.28-6.21) estimate, and the modified Delphi approach yielded estimates of 3.0 % (2.3-3.6), 16.8 % (14.5-19.1), and 25 % (22.0-27.0); an average of 14.9 %. The crude average of the three methods was 10.2 %. Applied to SSC, this results to 5,578 YBMSM. The estimate of 5,578 YBMSM represents a group that can be feasibly reached with HIV prevention efforts. Population estimates of those most at risk for HIV will help public health officials allocate resources, offering potential for elimination of new HIV cases.

Marijuana Use Among Young Black Men Who Have Sex With Men and the HIV Care Continuum: Findings From the uConnect Cohort

“…Previously, the population of YBMSM in South Chicago was estimated to be 5500 46 . To assess the sensitivity of our results to this estimator, we compared our results with weights generated by another commonly used estimator 43 .…”

The relationship between life stressors and drug and sexual behaviors among a population-based sample of young Black men who have sex with men in Chicago

“…Previously, we estimated the population of younger Black MSM in this region to be 5500 (Livak et al, 2013), and we thus used the SS estimator to generate sample weights using the RDS package in R statistical software .32. Use of SS estimator yielded comparable findings in terms of magnitude and statistical significance of effects to those obtained when we conducted the analysis using weights generated by another commonly used estimator (Livak et al, 2013). …”

“…Multivariable regression analyses were then conducted to quantify associations between stress exposure and sexual risk and substance use outcomes, adjusted for known confounders (i.e., age and income) and complex sampling methods. Multivariable logistic regression models were fitted using the SURVEYLOGISTIC procedure in SAS Version 9.4 and incorporated clustering on RDS seed, sampling weights, and a finite population correction using an estimated population size of YBMSM on the South Side of Chicago of 5500 (Livak et al 2013). All models controlled for age and income as potential confounders.…”

The Motivational PrEP Cascade Guides Interpretation of Early PrEP Linkage to Care for Young Black Men Who Have Sex With Men: The Case of Chicago's PrEPLine

“…Young, Black, gay, and bisexual men and other men who have sex with men (YBMSM) are disproportionately impacted by HIV in the U.S. and Chicago (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [CDC], 2016;Chicago Department of Public Health, 2017) Getting to Zero (G2Z), Illinois' statewide initiative to end HIV calls for an increase of PrEP uptake by 20% over the next 5 years (Livak et al, 2013). Out of 30,000 people eligible for PrEP in Illinois, an estimated 10% of have received prescriptions for PrEP (Getting to Zero Illinois, 2019).…”

“…Out of 30,000 people eligible for PrEP in Illinois, an estimated 10% of have received prescriptions for PrEP (Getting to Zero Illinois, 2019). Specifically on the South Side of Chicago, there are an estimated 5,578 YBMSM eligible for PrEP (Livak et al, 2013), and PrEP uptake among this group continues to be low (Getting to Zero Illinois, 2019).…”