Estimating the Past and Future Trajectory of LUCC on Wetland Ecosystem Service Values in the Yellow River Delta Region of China

Abstract

Land use/cover change (LUCC) can impact the provision of ecosystem service values (ESVs), particularly in wetland regions that are subject to frequent and unsustainable land conversions. Exploring the past and future trajectory of LUCC and its effects on ESV has a great significance for wetland management and habitat stability. This study tried to reveal the patterns and magnitude of LUCC on ESV under varying land development scenarios in the Yellow River Delta region, which is a typical region undergoing serious degradation in China. In this study, a combined approach utilizing equivalent coefficients of ecosystem services was employed to determine the ESV of the wetland in relation to the major land use types (LUTs). The Markov–FLUS model was then used to simulate LUTs across multiple scenarios in 2030 and to clarify the relationship of ESV between wetland and other LUTs. The results indicated that the wetland was severely degraded, with a loss in area of 6679.89 ha between 2000 and 2020. Cropland and water body were the main sources of diversion and turnover for the wetland, respectively. Despite the multiple scenario projections revealed, the wetland area exhibited a similar growth rate and a homogeneity in ESV under the natural development (ND), urban construction and development (UCD), and the ecological development (ED) scenarios. The ED scenario was deemed the optimal development strategy for the wetland ecosystem. Our research will improve the comprehension of land development decisions and promote sustainable development in estuarine wetland areas.

Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Driving Factors of Ecosystem Services in the Yellow River Delta, China

“…Against the background of urbanization, land use in the YRD changed rapidly and triggered temporal-spatial variations in the ecosystem services provided. In 2019, the ESVs of the YRD increased when compared with 2000, which is in line with the findings of Zhang [7]. The value of the water area was the highest at CNY 222.91 × 10 8 in 2019, contributing to 65.20% of the ESV in the YRD, marking a 1.5-fold increase when compared with 2000.…”

“…Ecosystem services are an important research framework in sustainability science, and refer to the multiple benefits that humans derive from natural systems and reflect the direct or indirect contribution of natural systems to human society's well-being [6]. Assessing the variations in products and services that human society obtains from ecosystems can improve our understanding of ecosystem value and can help us to understand the human-ecosystem relationship [6,7]. In sum, the valuation of ecosystem services is helpful to understand the changes in the environment and ecosystems and to provide scientific guidance for regional sustainable development [8].…”

“…Ecosystem service values (ESVs) apply economic rules and quantification indexes to estimate ecosystem services, which are the diverse benefits people can attain from various natural ecosystems [7]. The ESV quantification index refers to the services that a particular land use type can provide [9].…”

“…The equivalent factor method, which assesses ecosystem service values, is mainly based on land use classification data, and has advantages such as less data and a calculation process that is easy to perform. Since then, many scholars have carried out research to evaluate ecosystem services based on this method, and it had been widely applied in the evaluation of ecosystem services in wetland, forest, and farmland systems [7,11,12].…”