Estimating the prevalence of problem drug use in inner London: a discussion of three capture‐recapture studies

Hickman, Matthew; Cox, Stuart; Harvey, Julie; Howes, Samantha; Farrell, Michael; Frischer, Martin; Stimson, Gerry V.; Taylor, Colin; Tilling, Kate

doi:10.1046/j.1360-0443.1999.941116534.x

Cited by 58 publications

(39 citation statements)

References 18 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The methods used in this study, particularly the capture-recapture and multiplier methods, have been employed elsewhere, both for local and national (including Home Office) estimates of drug use (Hartnoll, 1985;Hickman, 1999, Frischer, 2001. However, for a small area study such as this we would expect variation in the different estimates, and as such we have used cross validation and comparison with other studies to corroborate our findings.…”

Section: Implications Of Findings For Other Geographical Areassupporting

confidence: 61%

“…We therefore aimed to quantify the current size of the drug using population in Lambeth, an inner city highly deprived London borough with previously reported high rates of drug use (Hickman et al, 1999). Secondly, we aimed to determine the prevalence of blood borne viral infections in this population.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Capture-recapture methods (CRM) have been promoted for use with difficult to reach populations (Hickman et al, 1999). Their use in epidemiological studies for estimating under-ascertainment or adjusting population surveys and estimates has been described in detail by others (Domingo-Salvany, 1997;Hook and Regal, 1995).…”

Section: Indirect Prevalence Estimatesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Indirect methods estimate the unobserved part of the drug using population in a variety of ways, based on an analysis of the observed part (Hickman et al, 1999(Hickman et al, , 2003. We used both multiplier and capture-recapture techniques in this study to allow cross validation of the prevalence estimates (Hartnoll, 1997).…”

Section: Indirect Prevalence Estimatesmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Comparing population estimates for drug users, the prevalence of blood-borne viruses and the provision of services in one London borough: Evidence of a gap in provision?

Cathcart

Patton

Hickman

et al. 2007

Drugs: Education, Prevention and Policy

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract:Aims To estimate the size of the drug using population in Lambeth, an inner city London borough, and the prevalence of blood borne virus (BBV) infections in the drug using population. To identify possible shortfalls in service provision for drug users. MethodsDirect and indirect estimates of the drug using population size using national and local data sources. Prevalence estimates for BBV infections were derived from local survey data. Routine data and a survey of borough services for drug users were compiled. FindingsBased on indirect methods we estimate there were 3117 drug users in Lambeth in 2001/2 (20 per 1000 15-44 year olds), of whom 1641 were injecting users (11 per 1000); 1353 were reported as being in drug treatment programmes. BBV prevalence rates: hepatitis B, 37%; hepatitis C, 71%; HIV, 6%. Estimated demand for needle exchange services, in terms of one syringe per injection, and methadone maintenance may be up to double local provision. ConclusionsMore accurate and feasible methods are needed for the routine estimation of the population of drug users. Accurate information is needed for service planning.

show abstract

Section: Implications Of Findings For Other Geographical Areassupporting

confidence: 61%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Indirect Prevalence Estimatesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Indirect Prevalence Estimatesmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Comparing population estimates for drug users, the prevalence of blood-borne viruses and the provision of services in one London borough: Evidence of a gap in provision?

Cathcart

Patton

Hickman

et al. 2007

Drugs: Education, Prevention and Policy

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Within the UK, multi-sample capture-recapture has been applied to estimate the prevalence of problem drug in the north west of England, 11 London, 12 Liverpool, 13 Glasgow, 14 Dundee, 15 the north east of Scotland, 16 and, in one of few studies involving rural areas alone, Cheshire. 17 Outside the UK, the European Monitoring Centre on Drugs and Drug Addiction (EMCDDA) funded a study, using three sample capture re-capture methods, to estimate the prevalence of opioid misuse within six European cities for the age group 15-54.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Capture-recapture estimates of problem drug use and the use of simulation based confidence intervals in a stratified analysis

Gemmell

Millar²,

Hay³

2004

Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Setting and participants: Problem drug users aged 16-54 resident within Greater Manchester who attended community based statutory drug treatment agencies, were in contact with general practitioners, were assessed by arrest referral workers, were in contact with the probation service, or arrested under the Misuse of Drugs Act for offences involving possession of opioids, cocaine, or benzodiazepines. Design: Multi-sample stratified capture-recapture analysis. Patterns of overlaps between data sources were modelled in a log-linear regression to estimate the hidden number of drug users within each of 60 area, age group, and gender strata. Simulation methods were used to generate 95% confidence intervals for the sums of the stratified estimates.Main results: The total number of problem drug users in Greater Manchester was estimated to be 19 255 giving a prevalence of problem drug use of 13.7 (95% CI 13.4 to 15.7) per 1000 population aged 16-54. The ratio of men to women was 3.5:1. The distribution of problem drug users varied across three age groups (16-24, 25-34, and 35-54) and varied between the 10 areas. Conclusions: Areas in close geographical proximity display different patterns of drug use in terms of prevalence rates and age and gender patterns. This has important implications, both for future planning of service provision and for the way in which the impact of drug misuse interventions are evaluated.

show abstract

Indirect Methods to Estimate Prevalence

Hickman¹,

Taylor

Epidemiology of Drug Abuse

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Estimating the prevalence of problem drug use in inner London: a discussion of three capture‐recapture studies

Abstract: Despite the inherent problems with capture-recapture methods, our three studies establish an evidence base for estimates of problem drug use in London. It is important that a larger study is carried out in London.

Cited by 58 publications

References 18 publications

Comparing population estimates for drug users, the prevalence of blood-borne viruses and the provision of services in one London borough: Evidence of a gap in provision?

Comparing population estimates for drug users, the prevalence of blood-borne viruses and the provision of services in one London borough: Evidence of a gap in provision?

Capture-recapture estimates of problem drug use and the use of simulation based confidence intervals in a stratified analysis

Indirect Methods to Estimate Prevalence

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About