Estimation of accommodation performance by region using data from online travel agencies

Abstract

This study identified the lack of data available to destination marketing organizations and other organizations in Japan. To enable strategic planning based on an immediate and detailed understanding of the situation, data beyond official statistics are required. Therefore, this study focused on plan data from online travel agencies. As online travel agency websites can be accessed free of charge, they can provide data, such as vacancies and plan types. This study proposed a methodology for estimating the number of vacancies at accommodations in Japan based on plan information. Accuracy was verified using graphical, autocorrelation, and regression analyses. The results indicated that the estimation was accurate. In addition, the estimated number of vacancies could predict accommodation performance in various regions. A comparison of the methods revealed that if the number of vacancies is unknown, using the number of rooms in a facility improves estimation accuracy. However, this method requires significant preliminary work compared to the method that assigns a constant. Therefore, analysts should select appropriate methods based on the aims.