Estimation of Rainfall Threshold for Flood Warning for Small Urban Watersheds Based on the 1D-2D Drainage Model Simulation

Abstract

This study proposed an equation for Rainfall Threshold for Flood Warning (RTFW) for small urban watersheds based on computer simulations. First, a coupled 1D-2D dual-drainage model was developed for nine watersheds in Seoul, Korea. Next, the model simulation was repeated for a total of 540 combinations of the synthetic rainfall events and watershed imperviousness (9 watersheds x 4 NRCS Curve Number (CN) values x 15 rainfall events). Then, the results of the 101 simulations that caused the critical flooded depth (0.25m-0.35m) were used to develop the equation that relates the value of RTFW to the rainfall event temporal variability (represented as coefficient of variation or CV) and the watershed Curve Number. The results suggest that (1) RTFW exponentially decreases as the rainfall CV increases; (2) RTFW linearly decreases as the watershed CV increases; and that (3) RTFW is dominated by CV when the rainfall has low temporal variability (e.g., CV<0.2) while RTFW is dominated by CN when the rainfall has high temporal variability (e.g., CV>0.4). For validation, the proposed equation was applied for the flood warning system with two storm events occurred in 2010 and 2011 over 239 watersheds in Seoul. The system showed the the hit, false and missed alarm rates at 69% (48%), 31% (52%) and 6.7% (4.5%), respectively for the 2010 (2011) event.