Estimation of Wind Power Potential Using Weibull Distribution

The German Energiewende has led to serious changes on the energy market. Technological innovations, growing technical and economical maturity and ongoing optimizations make renewable energies increasingly competitive. After describing appropriate economic objectives in the energy sector, the present paper highlights the difficulties arising in decision making in the area of renewable energies. Since decisions in the field of wind and solar energy depend on good weather forecasts, this paper focuses on the treatment of risks and uncertainties. For a wind power station convex combinations of Weibull distributions are presented as a general model for the description of the distributions of wind speeds. For the investigation of deterministic uncertainties a method is proposed, which has been recently developed for a specific case (Bischoff et al., Hard uncertainties in multiobjective layout optimization of photovoltaic power plants, 2015) and which is now formulated for the standard case of non-dynamic uncertainty sets. Finally, a new approach of error propagation is presented, which describes the propagation of errors in wind speeds to the resulting Weibull probability density functions.

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“…Hennessey (1977), Bowden et al (1983) and Genc et al (2005) among others. The Weibull density function, i.e.…”

Section: Wind Powermentioning

confidence: 93%

Economic objectives, uncertainties and decision making in the energy sector

Bischoff

Jahn

2016

J Bus Econ

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“…In this study, each of these distributions was examined for its ability (or lack thereof) to model wind speed frequency distributions in the Antakya region. Commonly used methods are the moments method, the least squares method, the power density method, and the method of maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) when determining the parameters of a distribution function [21,22]. In all cases, during this study, the parameters of the theoretical distributions were estimated using the MLE method, one of the most efficient methods for this purpose [23].…”

Section: Statistical Analysis Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

A statistical analysis of wind speed data using Burr, generalized gamma, and Weibull distributions in Antakya, Turkey

Mert¹,

Karakuş²

2015

Turk J Elec Eng & Comp Sci

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Abstract:The wind energy potential of the Antakya area was statistically analyzed based 8 years of wind data sets (2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009). The 4-parameter Burr, 3-parameter generalized gamma, and conventional Weibull distributions were regarded as suitable statistical models for describing wind speed profiles. The suitability of the models was tested by R 2 , RMSE, chi-squared, and Kolmogorov-Smirnov analysis. According to goodness-of-fit tests, the Burr distribution was found to be more suitable than the generalized gamma or Weibull distributions for representing the actual probability of wind speed data for Antakya. Based on the capacity factors estimated by the Burr model at a hub height, the power generation potential of a commercial 330-kW wind turbine was also determined. The results show that the available wind energy potential to generate electricity in Antakya is low; consequently, wind power would be suitable only for stand-alone electrical and mechanical applications, such as water pumps, battery charging units, and local consumption in off-grid areas.

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“…The maximum likelihood technique as an estimation technique to forecast Weibull parameters was used for Aksehir region in Turkey of year 2002 by Genc et al [19]. In that study, the average wind speed reaches its maximum value of 2.31 m/s in April, while its maximum value of 1.41 m/s occurs in February.…”

Section: Monthly Wind Characteristicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…There are many studies in the literature about western part of Turkey's wind characteristics [2,5,[12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20]. It is possible to classify the studies about wind characteristics as follows:…”

Section: Calculated Weibull Parametersmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bati Anadolu Rüzgar Karakteri̇sti̇kleri̇ Üzeri̇ne Yapilan Çalişmalarin Değerlendi̇ri̇lmesi̇

Güngör

2016

Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi

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Since the geography of Turkey provides appropriate meteorological conditions for the wind energy generation, it is inevitable to support the wind energy initiatives. In general, potential wind energy areas in Turkey lie in the northwestern and northern parts and at locations along the Aegean Sea coast. These regions are highly suitable for the wind energy generation, since the wind speeds exceed 3 m/s in most of these areas. So, due to the western part of Turkey are highly suitable for wind energy applications, most of researchers have focused mainly on these areas to calculate wind characteristics. This study is aimed to summarize the studies carried out on the parameters of the Weibull distribution function in western part of Turkey.Keywords: Wind characteristics; Weibull function; Wind energy, Wind data, Turkey, West Anatolia. BATI ANADOLU RÜZGAR KARAKTERĐSTĐKLERĐ ÜZERĐNE YAPILAN ÇALIŞMALARIN DEĞERLENDĐRĐLMESĐ ÖZETTürkiye coğrafik konumu nedeniyle farklı hava akımlarının etkisi altında kaldığından, rüzgar enerjisi potansiyeli oldukça yüksek olan bir ülkedir. Türkiye'de potansiyel rüzgar enerjisi alanları genel olarak, Batı Anadolu'nun kuzey, kuzeybatı kısımları ile Ege Denizi sahili boyunca uzanmaktadır. Bu bölgelerde rüzgar hızı çoğunlukla 3 m/s değerinin üzerinde olduğundan yüksek bir rüzgar enerji potansiyeline sahip olduğu anlaşılmaktadır. Bu nedenle pek çok araştırmacı, rüzgar enerjisi karakteristikleri çalışmalarında bu bölge üzerinde yoğunlaşmıştır. Bu çalışma, Batı Anadolu'da Weibull dağılım fonsiyonu üzerinde yapılan çalışmaları özetlemektedir.

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Estimation of Wind Power Potential Using Weibull Distribution

Cited by 87 publications

References 7 publications

Economic objectives, uncertainties and decision making in the energy sector

Economic objectives, uncertainties and decision making in the energy sector

A statistical analysis of wind speed data using Burr, generalized gamma, and Weibull distributions in Antakya, Turkey

Bati Anadolu Rüzgar Karakteri̇sti̇kleri̇ Üzeri̇ne Yapilan Çalişmalarin Değerlendi̇ri̇lmesi̇

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