Estudio De Causalidad Entre La Migracion Y El Subempleo en El Ecuador, 2012-2029.

Abstract

The present investigation is of a macroeconomic nature, its purpose is to analyze the flow of migrants who entered Ecuador and the behavior of underemployment during the period 2012-2019. For this, an investigation is proposed based on the hypothetical-deductive method, of a correlational type and not experimental; using information collected on official websites such as the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses and the Central Bank of Ecuador; a quarterly series of the two proposed variables was established: Number of migrants in Ecuador is the independent variable and Underemployment is the dependent variable. The methodology used proposes a model of autoregressive vectors (VAR) in order to establish whether or not there is a causal relationship between the two variables. As a result of the investigation, it was observed that there is a unidirectional causal relationship between underemployment and migration.