Evaluating and Adapting Climate Change Impacts on Rice Production in Indonesia: A Case Study of the Keduang Subwatershed, Central Java

Abstract

Predicting the effect of climate change on rice yield is crucial as global food demand rapidly increases with the human population. This study combined simulated daily weather data (MarkSim) and the CERES-Rice crop model from the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) software to predict rice production for three planting seasons under four climate change scenarios (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) for the years 2021 to 2050 in the Keduang subwatershed, Wonogiri Regency, Central Java, Indonesia. The CERES-Rice model was calibrated and validated for the local rice cultivar (Ciherang) with historical data using GenCalc software. The model evaluation indicated good performance with both calibration (coefficient of determination (R2) = 0.89, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) = 0.88) and validation (R2 = 0.87, NSE = 0.76). Our results suggest that the predicted changing rainfall patterns, rising temperature, and intensifying solar radiation under climate change can reduce the rice yield in all three growing seasons. Under RCP 8.5, the impact on rice yield in the second dry season may decrease by up to 11.77% in the 2050s. Relevant strategies associated with policies based on the results were provided for decision makers. Furthermore, to adapt the impact of climate change on rice production, a dynamic cropping calendar, modernization of irrigation systems, and integrated plant nutrient management should be developed for farming practices based on our results in the study area. Our study is not only the first assessment of the impact of climate change on the study site but also provides solutions under projected rice shortages that threaten regional food security.

Two decades of rice research in Indonesia and the Philippines: A systematic review and research agenda for the social sciences

“…It carries out research incubation and development activities, product commercialization, and integration of agriculture, animal husbandry, energy, and natural resources into a sustainable Science Techno Park. Some of their published studies focused on drought-tolerant rice cultivars (Salsinha et al, 2020(Salsinha et al, , 2021Trijatmiko et al, 2014), farmers' technical efficiency (Mulyani et al, 2020;Widyantari et al, 2018Widyantari et al, , 2019, systems of rice intensification (Arif et al, 2015;Syahrawati et al, 2018), and climate change adaptation (Ansari et al, 2021).…”

A review of climate change studies on paddy agriculture in Indonesia

“…In the same year, Erni Susanti et. all [25] evaluated the projections of rice productivity in mainland Java with two other studies were conducted in the Keduang Subwatershed, Central Java [26] and West Nusa Tenggara [27]. By 2022, at the time of this review is authored, the only research on land suitability analysis for rice farming that uses RCP4.5 scenario is conducted in Sukabumi District to assess the effect of climate changes projected between 2020 [28].…”

“…The use of GCM in Indonesia in this case is highly variative, for instance a study conducted by A. Candradijaya, et. all [17] and Andrianto Ansari, et.all [26] have used up to 17 GCM. The 17 GCM used by A. Chandradijaya, et.…”

Impact of climate change on wetland paddy yield in Indonesia: analysis from crop-cutting survey (Ubinan) results

“…Therefore, this circumstance challenges Indonesian food security and could affect socioeconomic aspects of the country since the agriculture sector has a significant contribution to employment and the economy [11]. Plenty of studies confirmed the negative impact of climate change on paddy yield or production [12][13][14][15][16].To the best of our knowledge, studies assessing the impact of climate change on wetland paddy yield nationwide in the Indonesian context are still limited. Many of them only assessed the impacts on the regional level such as [14] for Bali Province, [16] for a subdistrict in Central Java Province and [11] for West Nusa Tenggara Province.…”

“…Plenty of studies confirmed the negative impact of climate change on paddy yield or production [12][13][14][15][16].To the best of our knowledge, studies assessing the impact of climate change on wetland paddy yield nationwide in the Indonesian context are still limited. Many of them only assessed the impacts on the regional level such as [14] for Bali Province, [16] for a subdistrict in Central Java Province and [11] for West Nusa Tenggara Province. Our study aims to enrich literature and empirical works on the impact of climate change variables on wetland paddy yield in the nationwide context of Indonesia.…”