Evaluating climatic factors affecting cassava production in North Sumatera, Indonesia

Abstract

Cassava is one of the crucial food crops in Indonesia. However, cassava production in several production centers in Indonesia tended to decrease annually. As one of the cassava production centers in Indonesia, data from 2010-2022 shows that North Sumatera once had experienced significant production growth, but the production started to decline again. Climate and weather changes are suspected to be one of the reasons for the difficulty in maintaining this production growth. This study aimed to analyze the impact of climate change, represented by temperature, air humidity, and rainfall, on cassava production in North Sumatera using the Ordinary Least Square estimation method to estimate a Multiple Linear Regression model. Climate change, represented by temperature and air humidity variables, had a positive but insignificant effect. In contrast, the rainfall variable negatively and significantly impacted cassava production. It indicated that the declining trend of cassava production in North Sumatera corresponded with the increasing average rainfall during the cultivation period. Average rainfall noticeably impacted the decline in output, while average temperature and air humidity had a minimal impact. The importance of increasing cassava production to ensure food security must acknowledge sustainability concepts to avoid long-term environmental and climate changes.