Evaluating natural experiments in ecology: using synthetic controls in assessments of remotely sensed land treatments

Fick, Stephen E.; Nauman, Travis; Brungard, Colby; Duniway, Michael C.

doi:10.1002/eap.2264

Cited by 19 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 63 publications

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“…Using reference sites in recovery analyses is invaluable for guiding restoration and evaluating outcomes (Bestelmeyer et al, 2009; Fick et al, 2021; Herrick et al, 2019; Nauman et al, 2015). In this study, we used the DART process to identify reference areas, and we applied these to time‐varying remote sensing maps of sagebrush cover, allowing for a dynamic characterization of reference conditions through time and ensuring continued relevance of reference sites for this slow‐growing shrub.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Examining recovery relative to dynamic reference sites, for example, may indicate factors that accelerate recovery, or reveal when and why deviations from a desired trajectory occur, thereby signaling the need for additional interventions. Furthermore, a dynamic reference approach can reduce uncertainty when assessing restoration treatments by accounting for factors such as climatic variation and sensor noise in remote sensing studies (Fick et al, 2021). Such an approach also could reveal restoration constraints including abiotic conditions, legacy factors, and landscape context (Aronson & Le Floc'h, 1996; Suding, 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessing vegetation recovery from energy development using a dynamic reference approach

Monroe

Nauman

Aldridge

et al. 2022

Ecology and Evolution

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Ecologically relevant references are useful for evaluating ecosystem recovery, but references that are temporally static may be less useful when environmental conditions and disturbances are spatially and temporally heterogeneous. This challenge is particularly acute for ecosystems dominated by sagebrush (Artemisia spp.), where communities may require decades to recover from disturbance. We demonstrated application of a dynamic reference approach to studying sagebrush recovery using three decades of sagebrush cover estimates from remote sensing (1985–2018). We modelled recovery on former oil and gas well pads (n = 1200) across southwestern Wyoming, USA, relative to paired references identified by the Disturbance Automated Reference Toolset. We also used quantile regression to account for unmodelled heterogeneity in recovery, and projected recovery from similar disturbance across the landscape. Responses to weather and site‐level factors often differed among quantiles, and sagebrush recovery on former well pads increased more when paired reference sites had greater sagebrush cover. Little (<5%) of the landscape was projected to recover within 100 years for low to mid quantiles, and recovery often occurred at higher elevations with cool and moist annual conditions. Conversely, 48%–78% of the landscape recovered quickly (within 25 years) for high quantiles of sagebrush cover. Our study demonstrates advantages of using dynamic reference sites when studying vegetation recovery, as well as how additional inferences obtained from quantile regression can inform management.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing vegetation recovery from energy development using a dynamic reference approach

Monroe

Nauman

Aldridge

et al. 2022

Ecology and Evolution

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“…In Rock Springs, we set the year of management intervention as the second year without grazing (1990) for analysis of bare soil and perennial herbaceous cover and the third year without grazing (1991) for total spring foliar cover. This is due to data requirements during synthetic control model training as well as limits on the temporal extent of our fractional cover products (Fick et al 2020, Allred et al 2021, Okin et al 2021.…”

Section: Landscape Response To Livestock Removalmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Novel gridded data products and analytical frameworks provide new opportunities for learning from past changes in land management across large spatiotemporal extents (Fick et al 2020, Allred et al 2021, Simler-Williamson and Germino 2022. In particular, Nauman et al recently developed a technique to select study reference sites by matching study areas to comparable areas of the landscape based on similar topography and soils (Nauman andDuniway 2016, Nauman et al 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In particular, Nauman et al recently developed a technique to select study reference sites by matching study areas to comparable areas of the landscape based on similar topography and soils (Nauman andDuniway 2016, Nauman et al 2017). To extend this approach to time-series of remotely sensed data, Fick et al incorporated the 'synthetic control' method common in econometric literature (Fick et al 2020(Fick et al , 2022. This addition constructs a 'counterfactual estimate (CE)'-i.e.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Livestock removal increases plant cover across a heterogeneous dryland landscape on the Colorado Plateau

McNellis

Knight

Nauman

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Livestock removal is increasingly used as a management option to mitigate the negative impacts of grazing-related disturbances on rangelands. Removal generally increases plant cover, but it is unclear when, where, and by how much plant and soil cover changes can be expected. On the Colorado Plateau, complex geology, topography, soils, and climate all interact to mediate the relationship between land cover, climate, and disturbance. In this study we used new developments in land cover mapping and analysis to assess landscape plant and bare soil cover up to 30 years after livestock removal from two grazing allotments in Capitol Reef National Park, Utah, USA. Results indicate that livestock removal increases plant cover 0.17-0.32% per year and reduces bare soil cover 0.34-0.41% per year, although these rates may be suppressed by warming temperatures. Soils, assessed through Soil Geomorphic Units, played a strong but complex role in mediating land cover changes through time. These results suggest that livestock removal is an effective strategy for increasing plant cover and reducing bare soil on the Colorado Plateau, but including soil information in decision making will enhance efficiency by improving manager’s ability to prioritize management actions effectively across space and through time.

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Time, climate, and soil settings set the course for reclamation outcomes following dryland energy development

Lupardus,

Sengsirirak,

Griffen

et al. 2023

Land Degrad Dev

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Soil attributes, climate, and time since reclamation have important implications for oil and gas reclamation success on drylands. It is uncertain if reclaimed well pads, on highly degraded drylands, can successfully regain ecological function or meet indicator benchmarks for reclamation. Here, our goals were to assess patterns in reclamation outcomes relative to (1) soil attributes, climate, and time since reclamation; and (2) plant and soil reference benchmarks. We collected a suite of plant, soil, and landscape characteristics from 134 reclaimed well pads on the Colorado Plateau that spanned climate and soil gradients and ranged from 2 to 20 years post‐reclamation, then compared characteristics to those from 583 reference plots. On the reclaimed pads, less saline soils, more mesic climates, and longer time since reclamation were associated with favorable reclamation outcomes based on metrics of plant species richness and diversity, plant structure, and cover of important plant functional groups. However, most pads had major departures in 1/4 indicators, suggesting unsuccessful reclamation. Arid warm locations with shallow soils had the greatest percentage of major departures, and noxious plant richness had the greatest departures across soil and climate settings. Our assessment indicates reclamation is failing in key metrics for most pads, and the results highlight the role of environmental conditions in driving reclamation outcomes. These new insights are valuable for ascertaining possible reclamation outcomes and success rates following energy related disturbance, including orphaned wells and renewable energy development. Importantly, the approach used here has applicability for setting benchmarks and outcome standards.

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Evaluating natural experiments in ecology: using synthetic controls in assessments of remotely sensed land treatments

Abstract: Evaluating natural experiments in ecology: using synthetic controls in assessments of remotely sensed land-treatments. Ecological

Cited by 19 publications

References 63 publications

Assessing vegetation recovery from energy development using a dynamic reference approach

Assessing vegetation recovery from energy development using a dynamic reference approach

Livestock removal increases plant cover across a heterogeneous dryland landscape on the Colorado Plateau

Time, climate, and soil settings set the course for reclamation outcomes following dryland energy development

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