Evaluating regional climate model estimates against site-specific observed data in the UK

Rivington, M.; Miller, D. Gary; Matthews, Keith; Russell, G.; Bellocchi, Gianni; Buchan, K.

doi:10.1007/s10584-007-9382-9

Cited by 45 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 32 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Rivington et al, 2008;Themessl et al, 2012) and, more importantly, that this degrades Figure 9, but for the projected changes over the winter months (December-February). This figure is available in colour online at wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/qj further when quantifying extreme rainfall events that are the cause of floods -the interest of this paper.…”

Section: To Mos or Not To Mosmentioning

confidence: 92%

Modelling climate impact on floods with ensemble climate projections

Cloke

Wetterhall

et al. 2012

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

109

104

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The evidence provided by modelled assessments of future climate impact on flooding is fundamental to water resources and flood risk decision making. Impact models usually rely on climate projections from global and regional climate models (GCM/RCMs). However, challenges in representing precipitation events at catchment-scale resolution mean that decisions must be made on how to appropriately pre-process the meteorological variables from GCM/RCMs. Here the impacts on projected high flows of differing ensemble approaches and application of Model Output Statistics to RCM precipitation are evaluated while assessing climate change impact on flood hazard in the Upper Severn catchment in the UK. Various ensemble projections are used together with the HBV hydrological model with direct forcing and also compared to a response surface technique. We consider an ensemble of single-model RCM projections from the current UK Climate Projections (UKCP09); multi-model ensemble RCM projections from the European Union's FP6 'ENSEMBLES' project; and a joint probability distribution of precipitation and temperature from a GCM-based perturbed physics ensemble.The ensemble distribution of results show that flood hazard in the Upper Severn is likely to increase compared to present conditions, but the study highlights the differences between the results from different ensemble methods and the strong assumptions made in using Model Output Statistics to produce the estimates of future river discharge. The results underline the challenges in using the current generation of RCMs for local climate impact studies on flooding.

show abstract

Section: To Mos or Not To Mosmentioning

confidence: 92%

Modelling climate impact on floods with ensemble climate projections

Cloke

Wetterhall

et al. 2012

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

109

104

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…However, because actual topographic and geographic features may vary within model grid boxes, a direct comparison of model output with observations may be beyond a regional model's design (Rivington et al 2008). Nevertheless, to gain insight into the potential of RegCM to simulate significant and extreme temperature and precipitation events on small scales, we first compared model climatology for the reference period with data from 20 selected stations in Croatia (Fig.…”

Section: Simulation and Effects Of Climate Change On Local Significanmentioning

confidence: 99%

Near-future climate change over Europe with focus on Croatia in an ensemble of regional climate model simulations

Branković¹,

Patarčić²,

Güttler³

et al. 2012

Clim. Res.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The RegCM climate model was used at a 35 km resolution to downscale the 3-member global ECHAM5/MPI-OM ensemble based on the IPCC A2 scenario covering the EuropeanMediterranean domain. Within the reference climate (1961−1990), the model high 2 m temperatures (T2m) were reduced and low temperatures were increased relative to verification in a large portion of the domain. Precipitation was underestimated in summer over the Mediterranean region but was overestimated over western Europe in winter, probably due to excessive westerlies in the global model. When RegCM was forced by ERA-40, the dominant errors in the summer T2m appear to be genuine RegCM errors, but a large fraction of errors in winter precipitation was imported from the lateral boundaries. In the near future (2011−2040), the summer T2m is projected to increase by +1.8°C over southwest Europe. The simulated change in precipitation is small and is significant only in regions around the Mediterranean. The wetter north and drier south, a major feature in projections of the European winter climate in the late 21st century, is not predicted for the near future. Similarly, summer drying is confined to western Europe in contrast to nearly continental scale drying observed in projections of the late 21st century. This finding may influence the approaches for adaptation to climate change in the first half and at the end of this century. The effects of downscaling at small scales are analysed for the case of Croatia. The spatial distribution of the number of days with extreme T2m and precipitation in RegCM is consistent with observations. However, this metric is generally underestimated, indicating that over complex orography, even higher horizontal resolution is needed to better resolve climate extremes.

show abstract

“…However, it has been widely recognized that the GCMs were not designed to make projections at a regional scale (Carbone et al 2003, Christensen et al 2007, while the spatial resolution of RCMs such as the RegCM2 at 50 × 50 km is more appropriate . Mearns et al (2003) examined the performance of the GCMs and RCMs by comparing their present-day projections with global or regional scale aggregations of observed weather data (Rivington et al 2008). They found that the CSIRO and RegCM2 models generated different projections for the southeastern USA.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Soybean production in 2025 and 2050 in the southeastern USA based on the SimCLIM and the CSM-CROPGRO-Soybean models

Bao¹,

Hoogenboom

McClendon³

et al. 2015

Clim. Res.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This study developed an approach to determine the potential impact of climate change on soybean yield for 2025 and 2050 projections by combining the statistical downscaling model SimCLIM with the crop simulation model CSM-CROPGRO-Soybean. SimCLIM is an integrated assessment model (IAM) which can provide site-specific projections by using statistical downscaling based on 21 general circulation models (GCMs) and 6 greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The response of rainfed and irrigated soybean growth and yield to climate patterns based on 3 GCMs and 6 emission scenarios was investigated. Tifton, Georgia, USA (31.48°N, 83.53°W) was selected as an example location. The increase in temperature caused the number of days to maturity to decrease by 1.8 d for 2025 and by 2.3 d for 2050 compared to the reference years for both rainfed and irrigated conditions; however, later planted soybean showed a lower decrease. Increases in precipitation during the soybean growing season and in CO 2 concentration led to projected yield increases of 6 to 22% for 2025 and 8 to 35% for 2050 for rainfed conditions. Projected increases for irrigated soybean yield were about 1 to 12% less than for rainfed soya. Generally, Tifton is suitable for both rainfed and irrigated soybean planting based on projections by the 3 GCMs. Farmers might have to shift the planting date to after June 5 to avoid potential heat stress. The cultivars that are suitable for rainfed conditions include AG6702 and S80-P2, while DP5634RR, DP5915RR, and AG6702 are more suitable for irrigated conditions.

show abstract

Evaluating regional climate model estimates against site-specific observed data in the UK

Cited by 45 publications

References 32 publications

Modelling climate impact on floods with ensemble climate projections

Modelling climate impact on floods with ensemble climate projections

Near-future climate change over Europe with focus on Croatia in an ensemble of regional climate model simulations

Soybean production in 2025 and 2050 in the southeastern USA based on the SimCLIM and the CSM-CROPGRO-Soybean models

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About