Evaluating the Changes in Vietnam’s Influence on Laos’ Diplomatic Attitude Towards China Under BRI Using GDELT

Abstract

This article evaluates the extent to which Laos’ diplomatic preferences towards China have been influenced by Vietnam's attitudes towards China over the ten years (2014-2023) since the Belt and Road Initiative (hereafter BRI) was implemented. As a small state in the Southeast Asian region, the Lao People's Democratic Republic’s (hereafter Laos) diplomatic choices are influenced by both extra-regional powers and sub-regional power structures. Vietnam, as a sub-regional power, has successfully influenced Laos’ diplomatic policy towards China several times in the past. China’s BRI provides Laos with more flexibility in its diplomatic choices between China and Vietnam. This paper tests the above hypotheses based on the GDELT database. It is assessed that since the BRI was proposed, the Laos’ diplomatic attitude towards China has maintained a rising trend in a spiral. Laos has gradually become more independent in its diplomatic choices, while Vietnam’s influence over it has weakened modestly. Therefore, it can be considered that Vietnam’s attitude towards China does not currently pose a sufficient threat to Laos’ diplomatic attitude towards China.