Evaluating the mineral commodity supply risk of the U.S. manufacturing sector

Abstract

Trade tensions, resource nationalism, and various other factors are increasing concerns regarding the supply reliability of nonfuel mineral commodities. This is especially the case for commodities required for new and emerging technologies ranging from electric vehicles to wind turbines. In this analysis, we use a conventional risk-modeling framework to develop and apply a new methodology for assessing the supply risk to the U.S. manufacturing sector. Specifically, supply risk is defined as the confluence of three factors: the likelihood of a foreign supply disruption, the dependency of U.S. manufacturers on foreign supplies, and the ability of U.S. manufacturers to withstand a supply disruption. The methodology is applied to 52 commodities for the decade spanning 2007-2016. The results indicate that a subset of 23 commodities, including cobalt, niobium, rare earth elements, and tungsten, pose the greatest supply risk. This supply risk is dynamic, shifting with changes in global market conditions.

The Revised German Raw Materials Strategy in the Light of Global Political and Market Developments

“…As industrialized economies, which are based on modern technologies, employ most elements of the periodic table of elements (Graedel et al, 2015; Zepf, Reller, Rennie, Ashfield, & Simmons, 2014), many raw materials have a certain degree of economic importance. The relevance of critical raw materials has been discussed with regard to different countries, industries, and technologies as well as the military (Nassar et al, 2020; Powell‐Turner & Antill, 2017; Rabe, Kostka, & Stegen, 2017; Ziemann et al, 2013).…”

The re-direction of small deposit mining: Technological solutions for raw materials supply security in a whole systems context

“…Supply security assessments have been successful at identifying which minerals are most exposed to supply constraints in the near future ( EC, 2017 , 2014 ; Glöser et al., 2015 ; Nassar et al., 2020 ). However, these studies have also been subject to criticism, as different authors have questioned their ability to translate their findings into the development and application of tangible strategies to ensure a secure mineral supply within the context of the value chain.…”

“… Frenzel et al., (2017) concur that, due to flaws in criticality assessments, many of the raw materials generally identified as critical are probably not critical. But they state that the issue of supply security remains significant for some sectors, and surveys of criticality continue to identify the materials that are at greatest risk of supply shortage ( Hayes and McCullough, 2018 ; Nassar et al., 2020 ). Exceptionally, the Covid-19 pandemic has also created enormous short-term uncertainty.…”

Analyzing present and future availability of critical high-tech minerals in waste cellphones: A case study of India

“…The rapid advancement of technological innovation has led to a substantial increase in the demand for CHTMs ( Nassar et al, 2020 , Randive and Jawadand, 2019 ). The Indian economy has been growing rapidly at an annual rate of 7.1% in the past decade, which positions India as an emerging world economy ( Poonam., 2018 ).…”