Evaluating the Path to the European Commission’s Organic Agriculture Goal: A Multivariate Analysis of Changes in EU Countries (2004–2021) and Socio-Economic Relationships

Abstract

This study comprehensively analyzed the dynamic landscape of organic farming in the European Union (EU) from 2004 to 2021, investigating the shifts in dedicated agricultural areas influenced by evolving preferences and the priorities of farmers and consumers. Examining the impact of socio-economic factors, including gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, the human development index (HDI), and human population density, this study established multivariate relationships through country-level analyses based on correlations, principal component analysis, cluster analysis, and panel analysis. Despite a universal increase in the organic agriculture areas across all the EU countries during the study period, the production levels exhibited negative correlations with the human population density, GDP per capita, and HDI. Notably, the Baltic countries and Austria led in organic farming production, while Malta, the Netherlands, Belgium, Ireland, and Luxemburg formed a distinct group in the cluster analysis with less intensive organic agriculture per capita. These insights are crucial for supporting the resilience and sustainability of organic farming as it continues to evolve. Predictions of organic agriculture share for 2030 based on trends evaluated using linear regression in the years 2004–2021 estimated about 12% of utilized agricultural area, which was much lower than the target share of the European Commission at 25%. Predictions based on linear regression showed that achieving the European Green Deal target of a 25% share of organic agriculture in unlikely in most EU countries by 2030. The target is only highly probable to be obtained in Austria, Estonia, and Sweden. The EU countries varied significantly across various indices characterizing organic agriculture, including organic agriculture area share. It should be noted that the study was conducted on the data obtained prior to the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, which could potentially alter the previous trends in the development of organic agriculture in the EU.