Evaluating water security in sub‐Saharan Africa: Examining a case study of water supply inventory, accessibility, and predictability on Iwo, Nigeria

Abstract

The security of nations concerning water accessibility by 2030 is under threat due to climate change, potentially hindering global targets outlined in SDG 6. This study assesses the water security of the sub‐Saharan region, focusing on Iwo, Nigeria. Surveys on household water sources, availability, and use were conducted across 12 months among 937 households. Climatic data spanning 31 years (1992–2022) from the Nigeria Meteorological Agency were analyzed for water supply evaluation. Descriptive and inferential statistical analyses were applied to the datasets. Results revealed a predominant 95% involvement of female heads and individuals above 18 years old. Notably, 92.7% spent less than 10 min obtaining water, with 90.5% not paying water tariffs, indicating a predominantly domestic water use pattern, reflecting the agrarian nature of the study area. Analysis of climatic data highlighted water loss during dry season months and previously rainy months (March, April, and August), confirming climate change manifestations. Household water use consistently exceeded supply, ranging from 348.9 to 444.6 L/month, with a per capita value of 148.6 L (4.95 L/day) falling below the WHO recommendation of 10 to 20 L/day. Regression analysis identified three significant predictive models at p < .005, with Model 3 showing a notable predictability (R value of 42.3 at p < .005 and SE of ±79.05941), and it encompasses more of the variables analyzed. The generally low R value suggests the consideration of additional variables for model validity. Urgent and intentional efforts are required to exploit abundant surface water resources for enhanced justice in water accessibility in aligning with the SDG 6 target.