Evaluation of Ensemble Approach for O3 and PM2.5 Simulation

Morino, Yu; Chatani, Satoru; Hayami, Hiroshi; Sasaki, Kansuke; Mori, Yasuaki; Morikawa, Tazuko; Ohara, Toshimasa; Hasegawa, Shuichi; Kobayashi, Shinji

doi:10.5572/ajae.2010.4.3.150

Cited by 12 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…Hayami et al (2008) were well reproduced in summer in this study, and these results are similar to the results of a study by Morino et al (2010a), in which the ensemble means of four CTMs in the TMA in summer 2007 reproduced observed concentrations (Morino et al, 2010a).…”

Section: Comparison Of Model Performance With That Of Other Modelssupporting

confidence: 90%

“…In general, the performance of CTMs depends strongly on the region and the season, so models must be evaluated for specific target areas and time periods. In Japan, several studies have evaluated PM 2.5 models (Morino et al, 2010a;Ikeda et al, 2014;Shimadera et al, 2014a). However, in those studies, the temporal and spatial coverage of measured PM 2.5 chemical compositions was limited, and thus the performance of the models with regard to PM 2.5 chemical composition was not sufficiently evaluated over the whole of Japan.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Previous reports have pointed out that concentrations of organic aerosol (OA) were greatly underestimated by CTMs with secondary organic aerosol (SOA) yield models in western Japan and in the TMA (Morino et al, 2010a;Ikeda et al, 2014). Morino et al (2010b) showed that underestimation of OA in the TMA was due to underestimation of concentrations of SOA from both fossil and biogenic sources.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Verification of Chemical Transport Models for PM2.5 Chemical Composition Using Simultaneous Measurement Data over Japan

Morino

Nagashima

Sugata

et al. 2015

Aerosol Air Qual. Res.

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Evaluation of models for simulating temporal and spatial variations of PM 2.5 chemical composition in Japan has been limited by the lack of observational data. In this study, we used PM 2.5 chemical composition data measured simultaneously over several regions of Japan in winter, spring, and summer 2012 to evaluate three sensitivity simulations, one based on a secondary organic aerosol (SOA) yield model and two based on a volatility basis set (VBS) model. Concentrations of sulfate (SO 4 2-), nitrate (NO 3 -), and ammonium (NH 4 + ) were well reproduced by all the simulations in summer. However, in winter and spring, SO 4 2-concentrations were underestimated and NO 3 -concentrations were overestimated by the standard simulation. NO 3 -concentrations were better reproduced by a model with dry-deposition velocities of nitric acid and ammonia enhanced by a factor of 5, as was done in a previous study. Observed concentrations of elemental carbon and organic aerosol (OA) were higher at urban sites than at the surrounding remote sites, and this behavior was not adequately reproduced by models with a grid size of 15 km. Further refinements of emission inventories and models are necessary for better simulations of PM 2.5 chemical compositions. OA concentration was greatly underestimated by the simulation based on the SOA yield model over all the seasons but was better reproduced by the simulations based on the VBS model in spring and summer because aging reactions were considered in the VBS model-based simulations. The VBS model-based simulations reproduced the observations that primary OA predominated in winter and that the contribution of SOA was higher than that of primary OA in spring and summer. These contributions should be validated by means of observation-based source contributions of OA in future studies.

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Section: Comparison Of Model Performance With That Of Other Modelssupporting

confidence: 90%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Verification of Chemical Transport Models for PM2.5 Chemical Composition Using Simultaneous Measurement Data over Japan

Morino

Nagashima

Sugata

et al. 2015

Aerosol Air Qual. Res.

Self Cite

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“…Morino et al (2010b) also indicated that the ensemble average of the four models was effective for evaluating ozone and inorganic aerosol components. One of the issues found in their studies was that the four models used different domains, meteorological fields, boundary concentrations, and emission datasets, which made it difficult to identify the causes of the differences observed among the modeling results.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 94%

Multi-Model Analyses of Dominant Factors Influencing Elemental Carbon in Tokyo Metropolitan Area of Japan

Chatani

Morino

Shimadera

et al. 2014

Aerosol Air Qual. Res.

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The first phase of the Urban air quality Model InterComparison Study in Japan (UMICS) has been conducted to find ways to improve model performance with regard to elemental carbon (EC). Common meteorology and emission datasets are used with eight different models. All the models underestimate the EC concentrations observed in Tokyo Metropolitan Area in the summer of 2007. Sensitivity analyses are conducted using these models to investigate the causes of this underestimation. The results of the analyses reveal that emissions and vertical diffusion are dominant factors that affect the simulated EC concentrations. A significant improvement in the accuracy of EC concentrations could be realized by applying appropriate scaling factors to EC emissions and boundary concentrations. Observation data from Lidar and radiosonde suggest the possible overestimation of planetary boundary layer height, which is a vital parameter representing vertical diffusion. The findings of this work can help to improve air quality models to that they can be used to develop more effective strategies for reducing PM 2.5 concentrations.

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“…6 of Shimadera et al, 2013) and illustrated in Fig. 3 of Morino et al (2010a), whereas the differences in the sulfate concentrations between NICAM-g6str and the observations are somewhat greater on 7 and 8 August at Maebashi where the performance of NICAM-g6str is relatively poor, mainly due to the inade- quate horizontal resolution to reproduce the observed meteorological fields, as shown in Sect. 3.1.…”

Section: Evaluation Of Chemical Speciesmentioning

confidence: 83%

Application of a global nonhydrostatic model with a stretched-grid system to regional aerosol simulations around Japan

et al. 2015

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Abstract. An aerosol-coupled global nonhydrostatic model with a stretched-grid system has been developed. Circulations over the global and target domains are simulated with a single model, which includes fine meshes covering the target region to calculate meso-scale circulations. The stretched global model involves lower computational costs to simulate atmospheric aerosols with fine horizontal resolutions compared with a global uniform nonhydrostatic model, whereas it may require higher computational costs compared with the general regional models, because the stretched-grid system calculates inside and outside the target domain. As opposed to general regional models, the stretched-grid system requires neither a nesting technique nor lateral boundary conditions. In this study, we developed a new-type regional model for the simulation of aerosols over Japan, especially in the Kanto areas surrounding Tokyo, with a maximum horizontal resolution of approximately 10 km. This model usually reproduces temporal variations and their averages of the observed weather around Japan. This model generally reproduces monthly mean distributions of the observed sulfate and SO 2 over East Asia, with high correlations (R > 0.6), but the underestimation of the simulated concentrations by 40 % (sulfate) and 50 % (SO 2 ). Their underestimation of the simulated sulfate and SO 2 concentrations over East Asia are strongly affected by their underestimation in China and possibly by the uncertainty of the simulated precipitation around Japan. In the Kanto area, this model succeeds in simulating the wind patterns and the diurnal transitions around the center of the Kanto area, although it is inadequate to simulate the wind patterns and the diurnal transitions at some sites located at the edge of the Kanto area and surrounded on three sides by mountains, e.g., Maebashi, mainly due to the insufficient horizontal resolution. This model also generally reproduces both diurnal and synoptic variations of the observed and/or a regional aerosol-transport model, WRF-CMAQ, simulated EC, sulfate, and SO 2 concentrations in the Kanto area, especially with their high correlation (R > 0.5) at Komae/Tokyo. Although the aerosol module used in this study is relatively simplified compared to the general regional aerosol models, this study reveals that our proposed model with the stretchedgrid system can be applicable for the regional aerosol simulation.Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. D. Goto et al.: Application of a global nonhydrostatic model to regional aerosol simulations around Japan

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Evaluation of Ensemble Approach for O3 and PM2.5 Simulation

Cited by 12 publications

References 15 publications

Verification of Chemical Transport Models for PM2.5 Chemical Composition Using Simultaneous Measurement Data over Japan

Verification of Chemical Transport Models for PM2.5 Chemical Composition Using Simultaneous Measurement Data over Japan

Multi-Model Analyses of Dominant Factors Influencing Elemental Carbon in Tokyo Metropolitan Area of Japan

Application of a global nonhydrostatic model with a stretched-grid system to regional aerosol simulations around Japan

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