Evaluation of machine learning approach for surgical results of Ahmed valve implantation in patients with glaucoma

Abstract

Background Ahmed valve implantation demonstrated an increasing proportion in glaucoma surgery, but predicting the successful maintenance of target intraocular pressure remains a challenging task. This study aimed to evaluate the performance of machine learning (ML) in predicting surgical outcomes after Ahmed valve implantation and to assess potential risk factors associated with surgical failure to contribute to improving the success rate. Methods This study used preoperative data of patients who underwent Ahmed valve implantation from 2017 to 2021 at Ajou University Hospital. These datasets included demographic and ophthalmic parameters (dataset A), systemic medical records excluding psychiatric records (dataset B), and psychiatric medications (dataset C). Logistic regression, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and support vector machines were first evaluated using only dataset A. The algorithm with the best performance was selected based on the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC). Finally, three additional prediction models were developed using the best performance algorithm, incorporating combinations of multiple datasets to predict surgical outcomes at 1 year. Results Among 153 eyes of 133 patients, 131 (85.6%) and 22 (14.4%) eyes were categorized as the success and failure groups, respectively. The XGBoost was shown as the best-performance model with an AUROC value of 0.684, using only dataset A. The final three further prediction models were developed based on the combination of multiple datasets using the XGBoost model. All datasets combinations demonstrated the best performances in terms of AUROC (dataset A + B: 0.782; A + C: 0.773; A + B + C: 0.801). Furthermore, advancing age was a risk factor associated with a higher surgical failure incidence. Conclusions ML provides some predictive value in predicting the outcomes of Ahmed valve implantation at 1 year. ML evaluation revealed advancing age as a common risk factor for surgical failure.