Evaluation of the predictive Performance of Regional and Global Ground Motion Predictive Models against Greek Recorded Strong Motion Data.

Abstract

The aim of the present work is to evaluate the Ground Motion Prediction Models (GMPMs), applicable in active shallow crustal regions of Greece, for peak response parameters (PGA, PGV) and various ordinates of acceleration spectra (5% damping), to be implemented in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analyses (PSHA). The evaluation is data-driven, taking into account the most updated strong-motion dataset for Greece. According to the authors’ knowledge and literature review, such an effort has not been attempted before for region of interest, as the selection of GMPMs for PSHA was made based on qualitative criteria. The steps which were followed to fulfill such a goal include: a) pre-selection of regional, pan-European and global GMPMs, suitable for implementation in Greece; b) selection of appropriate data-driven scoring methods; c) scoring of pre-selected GMPMs for both peak response intensity measures and spectral acceleration values; d) final selection of GMPM suites and weighting. The final selection of GMPMs describes adequately the epistemic uncertainty of strong-motion in Greece and provides a useful tool for addressing a major component of PSHA studies, that is GMPM selection.