Evaluation of wind potential and economic prospects in the southern regions of Morocco with MERRA-2 and ERA5

Abstract

Meteorological reanalyses are generating interest in the modelling of wind energy production. This study provides a comparison between ERA5 and MERRA-2. Two regions in Morocco were studied: Laayoune-Sakia-El-Hamra (22 sites) and Dakhla-Oued-Eddahab (17 sites). Among the 150 wind turbines tested, the two most efficient ones were identified for each site. The results show that MERRA-2 outperforms ERA5 in several aspects, including scatter plots and R2 correlation. Wind potential and economic viability were evaluated for each of the 39 sites, incorporating a loss factor of 26.71% and applying Weibull parameters to precisely characterize each site. The analysis reveals that a few sites stand out for their high wind speeds, significant power densities and a capacity factor reaching 54.37%. Economically, the cost of electricity, ranging between $ 0.012 and $ 0.023 per kWh, is particularly favourable for wind energy production.