Evidence for slowdown in stratospheric ozone loss: First stage of ozone recovery

Newchurch, M. J.; Yang, Eun-Su; Cunnold, D. M.; Reinsel, Gregory C.; Zawodny, J. M.; Russell, James M.

doi:10.1029/2003jd003471

Cited by 265 publications

(377 citation statements)

References 62 publications

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“…Thus, we should pay more attention to the examination of sources of the cloud long-term and short-term variations. In case of slowdown of the total ozone trend over the Northern Hemisphere's mid-latitudes and the anticipated the ozone recovery (WMO, 2003, Newchurch et al, 2003, clouds will appear as the most important modulator of the UV radiation both over long-and short-time scales during the next decades.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-term variations of the UV-B radiation over Central Europe as derived from the reconstructed UV time series

2004

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Abstract. The daily doses of the erythemally weighted UV radiation are reconstructed for three sites in Central Europe: Belsk-Poland (1966-2001, Hradec Kralove-Czech Republic (1964-2001, and Tõravere-Estonia (1967-2001 to discuss the UV climatology and the long-term changes of the UV-B radiation since the mid 1960s. Various reconstruction models are examined: a purely statistical model based on the Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) methodology, and a hybrid model combining radiative transfer model calculations with empirical estimates of the cloud effects on the UV radiation. Modeled long-term variations of the surface UV doses appear to be in a reasonable agreement with the observed ones. A simple quality control procedure is proposed to check the homogeneity of the biometer and pyranometer data. The models are verified using the results of UV observations carried out at Belsk since 1976. MARS provides the best estimates of the UV doses, giving a mean difference between the modeled and observed monthly means equal to 0.6±2.5%. The basic findings are: similar climatological forcing by clouds for all considered stations (∼30% reduction in the surface UV), long-term variations in UV monthly doses having the same temporal pattern for all stations with extreme low monthly values (∼5% below overall mean level) at the end of the 1970s and extreme high monthly values (∼5% above overall mean level) in the mid 1990s, regional peculiarities in the cloud long-term forcing sometimes leading to extended periods with elevated UV doses, recent stabilization of the ozone induced UV long-term changes being a response to a trendless tendency of total ozone since the mid 1990s. In the case of the slowdown of the total ozone trend over Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes it seems that clouds will appear as the most important modulator of the UV radiation both in long-and short-time scales over next decades.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-term variations of the UV-B radiation over Central Europe as derived from the reconstructed UV time series

2004

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“…[59] Different to other current studies [e.g., Reinsel, 2002;Reinsel et al, 2002Reinsel et al, , 2005Newchurch et al, 2003;Steinbrecht et al, 2004;Weatherhead and Andersen, 2006;Brunner et al, 2006a] our analysis is not focused on trends and possible changes of them.…”

Section: Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, the ratification of the Montreal Protocol and its amendments prevented the EESC from growing linearly after 1995. More recently other concepts were developed to study the effectiveness of the Montreal protocol [e.g., Reinsel, 2002;Reinsel et al, 2002Reinsel et al, , 2005Newchurch et al, 2003;Steinbrecht et al, 2004;Weatherhead and Andersen, 2006;Brunner et al, 2006a], which is out of scope of the presented analysis.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Statistical modeling of total ozone: Selection of appropriate explanatory variables

et al. 2007

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[1] A set of 44 potential explanatory variables is used for statistical modeling of monthly mean total ozone values of 158 ground-based stations. A stepwise elimination process leads to zonally optimized multiple regression models, which account for approximately 78% of the variance in total ozone in the tropics, 85% south of 60°S and more than 90% in the three remaining zones while only retaining six explanatory variables in the model. In all regions the dynamics appear to dominate ozone variability, which is primarily described by a proxy specifically designed to describe the effects of short-term isentropic excursions at different altitude levels and the compression/expansion of air connected to convergence/divergence. The influence of equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) is also important in all regions, indicating the significant effects of anthropogenic emissions of ozone depleting substances (ODS). In addition to the dynamics and EESC, the influence of volcanic eruptions, represented by the integrated surface area density of stratospheric aerosols (SAD), has the largest impact on total ozone in northern regions. The results of the analysis are less clear in the Southern Hemisphere where only a few long-enough ozone time series are available.

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“…Newchurch et al 2003;Angell and Free 2009;Eyring et al 2010;Krzyścin 2010;Zhang et al 2014;Chipperfield et al 2017). However, some studies have shown that stratospheric ozone concentrations over different regions along the same latitude exhibit different recovery rates.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Zonally asymmetric trends of winter total column ozone in the northern middle latitudes

et al. 2018

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Using various satellite-based observations, a linear ozone transport model (LOTM), a chemistry-climate model (WACCM3) and an offline chemical transport model (SLIMCAT), zonally asymmetric trends of the total column ozone (TCO) in the northern middle latitudes during winter for the period 1979-2015 are analyzed and factors responsible for the trends are diagnosed. The results reveal that there are significant negative TCO trends over the North Pacific and positive TCO trends over the northwestern North America. The zonally asymmetric TCO trends are mainly contributed by the trends in partial column ozone in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) which are closely related to the long-term changes of geopotential height in the troposphere. Furthermore, the trends of geopontential height in the UTLS are mainly modulated by pattern changes in the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the Cold Ocean-Warm Land (COWL) and the North Pacific (NP) index. Accordingly, the zonally asymmetric TCO trends can be largely reconstructed by the trends of the above three teleconnection patterns. Sea surface temperature (SST) changes over the Pacific Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean can also exert a significant contribution to the zonally asymmetric TCO trends through their influence on the COWL and NP patterns. In addition, chemical ozone loss partially offsets the positive trends in zonal TCO anomalies over Central Siberia and enhances the positive TCO trends over northwestern North America. However, the contribution of chemical processes to the zonally asymmetric TCO trends is relatively smaller than that of dynamical transport effects. Interpreting the zonally asymmetric TCO trends and their responsible factors would be helpful for accurately predicting the stratospheric ozone return date in the northern middle latitudes.

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Evidence for slowdown in stratospheric ozone loss: First stage of ozone recovery

Cited by 265 publications

References 62 publications

Long-term variations of the UV-B radiation over Central Europe as derived from the reconstructed UV time series

Long-term variations of the UV-B radiation over Central Europe as derived from the reconstructed UV time series

Statistical modeling of total ozone: Selection of appropriate explanatory variables

Zonally asymmetric trends of winter total column ozone in the northern middle latitudes

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