Evidence from temperature analog for traditional and economic cities in Nigeria: implications for sustainable city-related actions

Abstract

Responding to the threats of climate change by cities requires taking relevant actions that will communicate future conditions in reliable and effective manner for sustainable and transformational climate actions. We used the analog approach to assess the geographical shifts and changes in average temperature conditions for six traditional and economic cities under different climate scenarios (Mitigated and Unmitigated scenarios). We calculated the similarity in temperature between each pixel for the current (2021–2050) and future (2041–2070) conditions of the cities, with every pixel globally in the historical (1971–200) period. Our analysis revealed that; (1) the temperature of the cities in the current and future periods will be similar to conditions of another place on the globe during the historical period; (2) Kano city will experience even more drastic changes because of the low level of similarity to other places; (3) the new places found with similar temperature conditions are generally to the south of the corresponding cities thus indicating warming. The overall results show that the analogues of the cities are within the domain of the global tropical zone which occurs around the equator. Drawing from the interaction between cities and their analogues, we highlighted sustainable city related actions such as the incorporation of urban designs and policies to enhance human thermal comfort as adaptation and solution strategies. While future research might apply qualitative studies and additional data to support the analog results, our findings can guide the understanding and application of the analog approach into environmental issues in Nigeria and other West African countries in accordance to sustainable city goals (SDG 11).