Evolution and Optimization Simulation of Coastal Chemical Industry Layout: A Case Study of Jiangsu Province, China

Abstract

In the face of geopolitical challenges and climate change, economic progress, safe production, and environmental protection have emerged as important directions for chemical industry development. However, the rational optimization of the chemical industry layout under the backdrop of ecological environmental protection necessitates further exploration. This study explores the evolution and future development direction of the chemical industry layout within the coastal region of Jiangsu Province, China, using the CA–Markov model. The findings reveal a trend of spatial agglomeration growth among coastal chemical enterprises, with Moran’s Index increasing from 0.109 in 2007 to 0.206 in 2017. The petrochemical industry, in particular, demonstrated the most significant agglomeration effect, with approximately 52.10% being concentrated in 14 coastal industrial parks in 2017. Under the constraints of the ecological environment and policy guidance, the land area allocated for the chemical industry experienced a reduction of over 10%, further strengthening the emphasis on spatial agglomeration. Chemical industries along Jiangsu’s coast have become agglomerated and concentrated near industrial parks and ports. Their spatial distribution and connectivity were mainly influenced by factors such as convenient transportation, the ecological environment, local policies, the distance from residential areas, and industrial agglomeration. Under different scenarios—including natural growth, ecological environment constraints, and policy guidance—chemical industries show diverse spatial patterns. Ecological environmental constraints and policy guidance can provide various intervention methods for the government to promote the optimization direction and focus of the chemical industry layout while minimizing its impact on the ecological environment.