Evolution of mortality and lethality due to covid-19 in the state of Roraima, Brazil, from march 2020 to july 2021

Abstract

Introduction: the context of the Covid-19 pandemic in the Brazilian North region is worrying. There is a lack of resources for Public Health, a low human development index, and poverty indicators above the national average. Objective: to analyze mortality and lethality from COVID-19 in the State of Roraima, Brazil. Methods: this is an ecological time-series study of secondary data on COVID-19 in Roraima, Northern Brazil, from March 2020 to July 2021. The incidence, mortality, and lethality rates due to COVID-19 were calculated. The Prais-Winsten regression model was used to calculate the time series trends. Trends were classified as increasing, decreasing, or stationary. The trend was considered static when the p-value was not significant (p>0.05). Results: in the state of Roraima, from March 2020 to July 2021, there were 123,125 cases and 1,903 accumulated deaths due to COVID-19. The first wave (March 2020 to October 2021) of COVID-19 recorded the incidence rate (2,995.30 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants - July 2020) and mortality (56.32 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants - June 2020) higher lethality. However, in the second wave (November 2020 to July 2021), the highest lethality rate was observed (3.47% - February 2021). It was observed that during the first wave, the incidence rate of COVID-19 showed increasing trends. During this period, the mortality rate had a stationary tendency (p>0.05) and the percentage lethality with a decreasing trend (p<0.05). During the second wave, there was a more aggravating scenario for lethality, which changed from a daily reduction rate of 0.90% to stationary trends. Conclusion: the pandemic in the state of Roraima is not yet under control, so it is necessary to strengthen strategies to mitigate the spread of the pandemic in the region and prevent the formation of new waves.

Space-temporal analysis of the incidence, mortality and case fatality of COVID-19 in the State of Rio Grande do Norte, in the period from 2020 to 2022, in the Northeast of Brazil

“…The occurrence of variations in incidence, mortality and case fatality over time frequently occurs in different countries and regions, as was also observed in this study. These patterns are widely observed and have been studied in different contexts 29,32 .…”

“…It is important to emphasize the distinct characteristics of each region, and that the variations in the time series of cases and deaths from COVID-19 differ between locations, not showing a uniform pattern of behavior. In this way, each region and/or country has its own epidemiological characteristics and based on these, specific response measures are developed and adopted 4,29,32,34 .…”

“…On average, the country has seen a 7-fold increase in case rates per million population. Rio Grande do Norte was the only state below the national value, with 6.6 32,43,44 .…”

Trends in COVID-19 lethality and mortality rates in the State of Pernambuco, Brazil: a time series analysis from april 2020 to june 2021

“…The presentation of case fatality with the decreasing trend in the first wave is a specific and unusual data observed in the trends compared to the rest of Brazil; this is probably because the case fatality sample in May 2020 in the state was one of the highest rates ever seen in the country, acuminating in the great decrease until the end of the 1st period [32][33][34][35][36][37] .…”

Deciphering Multifactorial Correlations of COVID-19 Incidence and Mortality in the Brazilian Amazon Basin

“…However, several COVID-19 studies on Amazonas focus on the characterization of individuals at a particular time [25]. The analysis and understanding of the temporal variations of COVID-19 mortality and lethality can lead to opportunely and satisfactory interventions for the prevention of more harmful consequences [26][27][28][29].…”