Evolution of pathogens with cross-immunity in response to healthcare interventions

Fan, Ruili; Geritz, Stefan A.H.

doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2023.111575

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 37 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Most importantly, when using an adaptive dynamics framework, which employs a separation of ecological and evolutionary timescales, we were not able to explore selection for detection avoidance during transient epidemic dynamics. However, this approach does provide qualitative insights into the effects of healthcare interventions on the direction of selection (see also Fan and Geritz (2023)), and the adaptive dynamics assumptions were relaxed in our stochastic simulations. We also assumed that the host population was homogeneous, but significant heterogeneity in both disease outcomes and compliance with NPIs is likely in most populations.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Diagnostic testing and the evolution of detection avoidance by pathogens

Wood,

Ashby

2023

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Diagnostic testing is a key tool in the fight against many infectious diseases. The emergence of pathogen variants that are able to avoid detection by diagnostic testing therefore represents a key challenge for public health. In recent years, variants for multiple pathogens have emerged which escape diagnostic testing, including mutations in Plasmodium falciparum (malaria), Chlamydia trachomatis (chlamydia) and SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19). However, little is currently known about when and the extent to which diagnostic test escape will evolve. Here we use a mathematical model to explore how the frequency of diagnostic testing, combined with variation in compliance and efficacy of quarantining, together drive the evolution of detection avoidance. We derive key thresholds under which a testing regime will (i) select for diagnostic test avoidance, or (ii) drive the pathogen extinct. Crucially, we show that imperfect compliance with diagnostic testing regimes can have marked effects on selection for detection avoidance, and consequently, for disease control. Yet somewhat counterintuitively, we find that an intermediate level of testing can select for the highest level of detection avoidance. Our results, combined with evidence from various pathogens, demonstrate that the evolution of diagnostic testing avoidance should be carefully considered when designing diagnostic testing regimes.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Diagnostic testing and the evolution of detection avoidance by pathogens

Wood,

Ashby

2023

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Diagnostic testing and the evolution of detection avoidance by pathogens

Wood,

Ashby

2024

Evolution, Medicine, and Public Health

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Diagnostic testing is a key tool in the fight against many infectious diseases. The emergence of pathogen variants that are able to avoid detection by diagnostic testing therefore represents a key challenge for public health. In recent years, variants for multiple pathogens have emerged which escape diagnostic testing, including mutations in Plasmodium falciparum (malaria), Chlamydia trachomatis (chlamydia) and SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19). However, little is currently known about when and the extent to which diagnostic test escape will evolve. Here we use a mathematical model to explore how the frequency of diagnostic testing, combined with variation in compliance and efficacy of isolating, together drive the evolution of detection avoidance. We derive key thresholds under which a testing regime will (i) select for diagnostic test avoidance, or (ii) drive the pathogen extinct. Crucially, we show that imperfect compliance with diagnostic testing regimes can have marked effects on selection for detection avoidance, and consequently, for disease control. Yet somewhat counterintuitively, we find that an intermediate level of testing can select for the highest level of detection avoidance. Our results, combined with evidence from various pathogens, demonstrate that the evolution of diagnostic testing avoidance should be carefully considered when designing diagnostic testing regimes.

show abstract

Evolution of pathogens with cross-immunity in response to healthcare interventions

Cited by 2 publications

References 37 publications

Diagnostic testing and the evolution of detection avoidance by pathogens

Diagnostic testing and the evolution of detection avoidance by pathogens

Diagnostic testing and the evolution of detection avoidance by pathogens

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About