Examining Economic Development and Carbon Emissions in China’s Low-Carbon Pilot Provinces

Abstract

Global warming imperils human survival and development, and carbon emissions from human activities are the main cause of global warming [1]. As the world's largest developing country and a fast-growing economy, China leads the globe in carbon emissions, and its government has promised to cut carbon emission intensity to 40% to 45% of 2005 levels by 2020. Toward this end, it formulated a low-carbon development plan in which low-carbon pilot projects are a key element. Without constraints provided by specialised policy, local governments might ignore the carbon emissions issues to pursue economic growth. Considering this, low-carbon pilot projects are important tools to reduce carbon emissions attendant to economic development.Numerous studies relate economic development and carbon emissions through the mechanism of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) [2]. Applying variant approaches, Halicioglu [3], Puliafito et al. [4], Al-mulali Pol. J. Environ. Stud. Vol. 26, No. 6 (2017), 2619-2631 AbstractTaking small-scale areas as research units, this paper empirically explores the dynamic relationship between economic development and carbon emissions from 1995 to 2013 in China's low-carbon pilot provinces. This subject has been neglected in the literature. We first apply decoupling theory to analyse the decoupling of economic development and carbon emissions. We then apply a STIRPAT model and ridge regression to deconstruct the mechanism whereby economic development influences carbon emissions in China's low-carbon provinces. Empirical results show a positive linear correlation between economic development and carbon emissions in the examined provinces. We find that population size and industrial structure most prominently affect carbon emissions; however, per capita wealth, technological progress, and policy factors do not show the expected significance. Our results allow policymakers to formulate lowcarbon policies on the basis of empirically verified situations in the examined regions. They suggest that restricting population growth and transforming industrial structures are the keys to reducing China's carbon emissions.

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