Exceptional Bora outbreak in winter 2012: Validation and analysis of high-resolution atmospheric model simulations in the northern Adriatic area

Davolio, Silvio; Stocchi, Paolo; Benetazzo, Alvise; Böhm, E.; Riminucci, Francesco; Ravaioli, M.; Li, Xiaoming; Carniel, Sandro

doi:10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2015.05.002

Cited by 36 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…As described in [19,27,56], the way the SST is handled in coupled models plays a fundamental role in describing possible feedbacks between the atmosphere and ocean. In this work, we used different approaches.…”

Section: Sst Analysis and Comparisonmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity of a Mediterranean Tropical-Like Cyclone to Different Model Configurations and Coupling Strategies

et al. 2017

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Abstract:In November 2011, an Atlantic depression affected the Mediterranean basin, eventually evolving into a Tropical-Like Cyclone (TLC or Mediterranean Hurricane, usually designated as Medicane). In the region affected by the Medicane, mean sea level pressures down to 990 hPa, wind speeds of hurricane intensity close to the eye (around 115 km/h) and intense rainfall in the prefrontal zone were reported. The intensity of this event, together with its long permanence over the sea, suggested its suitability as a paradigmatic case for investigating the sensitivity of a numerical modeling system to different configurations, air-sea interface parameterizations and coupling approaches. Toward this aim, a set of numerical experiments with different parameterization schemes and levels of coupling complexity was carried out within the Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Wave Sediment Transport System (COAWST), which allows the description of air-sea dynamics by coupling an atmospheric model (WRF), an ocean circulation model (ROMS), and a wave model (SWAN). The sensitivity to different initialization times and Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) parameterizations was firstly investigated by running a set of WRF standalone (atmospheric-only) simulations. In order to better understand the effect of coupling on the TLC formation, intensification and trajectory, different configurations of atmosphere-ocean coupling were subsequently tested, eventually including the full coupling among atmosphere, ocean and waves, also changing the PBL parameterization and the formulation of the surface roughness. Results show a strong sensitivity of both the trajectory and the intensity of this TLC to the initial conditions, while the tracks and intensities provided by the coupled modeling approaches explored in this study do not introduce drastic modifications with respect to those resulting from a fine-tuned standalone atmospheric run, though they provide by definition a better physical and energetic consistency. Nevertheless; the use of different schemes for the calculation of the surface roughness from wave motion, which reflects the description of air-sea interface processes, can significantly affect the results in the fully coupled runs.

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Section: Sst Analysis and Comparisonmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity of a Mediterranean Tropical-Like Cyclone to Different Model Configurations and Coupling Strategies

et al. 2017

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“…The NWP system is based on BOLAM hydrostatic and MOLOCH non-hydrostatic models, both developed at CNR-ISAC (Davolio et al, 2015). In the present study, BOLAM runs over an European domain, with horizontal resolution of about 11 km and 50 vertical levels.…”

Section: Nwp System Setupmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This SST representation is generally unrealistic even for short-range forecasts, especially in small and shallow basins like the Adriatic Sea (Davolio et al, 2015;Ricchi et al, 2016). This framework motivated the present study aimed at investigating the impact of the northern Adriatic SST on the intensity and location of the rainfall, identifying the relevant physical mechanisms involved.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Heavy precipitation over the Alps is directly (e.g., by orographic uplift) or indirectly (e.g., by orographic cyclogenesis) related to the influence of mountain ranges on atmospheric motions. Heavy precipitations over NEI are often associated with Sirocco or Bora winds (Manzato, 2007;Davolio et al, 2015Davolio et al, , 2016, thus involving intense air-sea interactions. In this situation, the Adriatic Sea acts as a source of moisture and heat for the atmosphere and contributes to destabilize the air mass in the boundary layer (PBL), which is then transported toward the mountains where convective instability is released.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Intense air-sea exchange and heavy rainfall: impact of the northern Adriatic SST

Stocchi

Davolio

2016

Adv. Sci. Res.

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Abstract. Over the northern Adriatic basin, intense air-sea interactions are often associated with heavy precipitation over the mountainous areas surrounding the basin. In this study, a high-resolution mesoscale model is employed to simulate three severe weather events and to evaluate the effect of the sea surface temperature on the intensity and location of heavy rainfall. The sensitivity tests show that the impact of SST varies among the events and it mainly involves the modification of the PBL characteristics and thus the flow dynamics and its interaction with the orography.

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“…The proper representation of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the numerical models, especially in small and shallow basins, such as the Adriatic Sea, is necessary for improving short-range precipitation forecasts (e.g. Davolio et al, 2015b;Stocchi and Davolio, 2016;Ricchi et al, 2016). The response of heavy precipitation to an SST change is complex and mainly involves modification to the boundary layer characteristics, flow dynamics and its interaction with the orography.…”

Section: Iop4mentioning

confidence: 99%

Overview of the first HyMeX special observation period over Croatia

Ivančan-Picek

Tudor

Horvath

et al. 2016

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The HYdrological cycle in the Mediterranean EXperiment (HyMeX) is intended to improve the capabilities of predicting high-impact weather events. Within its framework, the aim of the first special observation period (SOP1), 5 September to 6 November 2012, was to study heavy precipitation events and flash floods. Here, we present high-impact weather events over Croatia that occurred during SOP1. Particular attention is given to eight intense observation periods (IOPs), during which high precipitation occurred over the eastern Adriatic and Dinaric Alps. During the entire SOP1, the operational model forecasts generally well represented medium intensity precipitation, but heavy precipitation was frequently underestimated by the ALADIN model at an 8 km grid spacing and was overestimated at a higher resolution (2 km grid spacing). During IOP2, intensive rainfall occurred over a wider area around the city of Rijeka in the northern Adriatic. The short-range maximum rainfall totals were the largest ever recorded at the Rijeka station since the beginning of measurements in 1958. The rainfall amounts measured in intervals of 20, 30 and 40 min were exceptional, with return periods that exceeded a thousand, a few hundred and one hundred years, respectively. The operational precipitation forecast using the ALADIN model at an 8 km grid spacing provided guidance regarding the event but underestimated the rainfall intensity. An evaluation of numerical sensitivity experiments suggested that the forecast was slightly enhanced by improving the initial conditions through variational data assimilation. The operational non-hydrostatic run at a 2 km grid spacing using a configuration with the ALARO physics package further improved the forecast. This article highlights the need for an intensive observation period in the future over the Adriatic region to validate the simulated mechanisms and improve numerical weather predictions via data assimilation and model improvements in descriptions of microphysics and air-sea interactions.

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Exceptional Bora outbreak in winter 2012: Validation and analysis of high-resolution atmospheric model simulations in the northern Adriatic area

Cited by 36 publications

References 38 publications

Sensitivity of a Mediterranean Tropical-Like Cyclone to Different Model Configurations and Coupling Strategies

Sensitivity of a Mediterranean Tropical-Like Cyclone to Different Model Configurations and Coupling Strategies

Intense air-sea exchange and heavy rainfall: impact of the northern Adriatic SST

Overview of the first HyMeX special observation period over Croatia

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