Experience in Using Domestic Models for Predicting the Insolvency of Enterprises at the Meat Processing Industry of the Irkutsk Region

Abstract

The article discusses the application of insolvency forecasting models developed by domestic scientists: A.Yu. Belikov, V.V. Kovalev, A.S. Kucherenko, A.V. Postyushkov, G.V. Savitskaya, R.S. Saifulin and G.G. Kadykov for enterprises of the meat processing industry of the Irkutsk region. The study was conducted on the example of several plants, whose insolvency assessments were to be included in the "green", "grey" and "red" zones of the forecast. The models used confirmed the hypothesis that indicators are in the "green" zone for enterprises that are currently operating. Enterprises whose indicators were supposed to fall into the "gray" zone were partially diagnosed, which requires clarification of the boundaries of the "gray" zones. Using historical data on the stoppage of production of one of the enterprises, we can say that the above models correctly diagnosed an enterprise from the "red" zone, but gave different estimates — from one to five years before the actual termination of activity. The study was conducted using open data from the Federal State Statistics Service and the Federal Tax Service for 2013–2022.