Expert-Analytical Forecasting of Nuclear Damage Foci on the Monitoring Issues of Military Character Emergency Situations

Abstract

Relevance. The problem of complex assessment of possible boundaries of nuclear damage in military character emergency situations is considered. The aim of the work is to determine the "necessary and sufficient" parameters of a nuclear explosion and to assess their contribution to identification problems of nuclear foci, identify their features and boundaries, assess the doses of gamma-neutron exposure of the population, and effectively distribute forces and facilities for actions in nuclear foci. Method. In order to correctly assess the situation in the nuclear foci and plan the necessary measures, it was evaluated the contribution of the output "necessary and sufficient" parameters for detecting a nuclear explosion of different power, shape and type of ammunition according to the measurability criteria using the hierarchy analysis method of T. Saati adapted for the problems under consideration. The advantage of using the hierarchy analysis method for complex assessment of possible nuclear foci in military character emergency situations is the possibility of finding the weight coefficients of each element of a complex hierarchical system, taking into account their interrelationships and mutual influence through pairwise expert comparisons. The received weights (priorities) on levels of hierarchy allow to define the contribution of elements of the bottom level on achievement of the purpose which is formulated on the top level. The process of assessing boundaries of nuclear damage is proposed in the form of three tasks according to the criteria: type of nuclear explosion, TNT equivalent and type of ammunition, which represent a complex expert-analytical assessment of the damaging factors of a nuclear explosion. Results. The paper presents the results of expert-analytical assessment of possible boundaries of nuclear damage in emergency situations of a military nature in the context of uncertainty of the initial information in the detection of nuclear explosions. Conclusions. The need to take into account the spectrum of neutron radiation in the prediction of nuclear foci is confirmed as "sufficient" information with the aim of making adequate and effective predictions of nuclear foci. It is determined that when assessing nuclear foci, both on the basis of the type of nuclear explosion, its power, and the shape of nuclear munition, it is better to predict and manifest (identify) the source of radiation-mechanical damage. When a combined radiation damage and radiation damage is detected in a "pure" form, the best criterion is based on the type of nuclear munition. K e ywor d s : boundaries of nuclear damage; the damaging factors of a nuclear explosion; hierarchy analysis method; an expert-analytical assessment. NOMENCLATURE q nuclear explosion power in TNT equivalent; H height of the explosion.